Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 6, 2014 at 06:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update July 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update July 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update July 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update July 5, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on July 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 273 and 312 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 193.0 (increasing 44.4 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 136.1. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5). Three hour interval K indices: 00000011 (planetary), 00012422 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 18 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 461) and 17 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 332) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12100 [N10W52] decayed further and could soon become spotless.
Region 12102 [N12W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12103 [S12W44] was quiet and stable.
Region 12104 [S12W13] decayed slowly. An M class flare is still possible.
Region 12106 [N16W07] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12107 [S19W02] displayed no major changes. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12108 [S07E16] developed further and has major flare potential. A magnetic delta structure has developed in the northwestern part of the large trailing penumbra.
Region 12109 [S07E34] developed a magnetic delta structure in the eastern part of the largest penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 12110 [S16E22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12111 [N06E51] was quiet and stable.
New region 12112 [S17W43] emerged on July 4 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3599 [N02W24] regained a leading polarity penumbra spot.
S3609 [S14E01] developed slowly and quietly.
S3614 [N06E59] was quiet and stable.
New region S3615 [S09W15] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3616 [S23W64] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3617 [N03W39] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3618 [N20E48] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ Flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR
C2.4 22:40 S09W07 12104

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH626) was in an Earth facing position on July 5.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 6-7. On July 8-9 there is a chance of unsettled intervals due to possible effects from CH626.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12100 2014.06.25
2014.06.27
4 6 3 N10W54 0020 CRO BXO

area: 0030

12103 2014.06.26
2014.06.28
  3 1 S10W46 0012   BXO location: S12W44
12102 2014.06.27
2014.06.28
7 24 13 N11W24 0030 CAO CAO

area: 0050

12104 2014.06.28 21 48 22 S12W13 0390 DKC DAC area: 0400
12107 2014.06.28
2014.06.29
14 37 17 S21W03 0260 EHI DHI images/AR_12107_20140705_2345.png beta-gamma

area: 0350

location: S19W02

S3590 2014.06.28       S23W16           plage
S3591 2014.06.28       S12W34           plage
12105 2014.06.28
2014.06.29
      S05W57           plage
12106 2014.06.29 5 38 18 N15W06 0120 DAO DAI area: 0170

location: N16W07

12108 2014.06.30
2014.07.01
27 54 33 S08E16 0350 DKI DKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0900

S3599 2014.06.30   1 1 N02W24 0003   AXX  
S3603 2014.07.01       N06W48           plage
12109 2014.07.01
2014.07.02
23 45 33 S08E36 0830 EKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0920

S3607 2014.07.01       N12W32         plage
12110 2014.07.02
2014.07.03
6 8 5 S16E22 0010 DRO DRO area: 0030
S3609 2014.07.02   14 8 S14E01 0025   DRO  
12111 2014.07.03
2014.07.04
4 6 3 N06E54 0070 DAO CAO location: N06E51
S3611 2014.07.04       S30W32         plage
12112 2014.07.04
2014.07.05
2 1 1 S19W42 0010 BXO HRX  
S3613 2014.07.04       N15W46         plage
S3614 2014.07.04   2 1 N06E59 0010   HRX SWPC has included this AR in AR 12111
S3615 2014.07.05   1 1 S04W15 0003   AXX    
S3616 2014.07.05   1 1 S23W64 0004   AXX    
S3617 2014.07.05   1 1 N03W39 0003   AXX    
S3618 2014.07.05   1   N20E48 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 113 291 162  
Sunspot number: 213 461 332  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 174 353 224  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 128 161 183 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 (78.2 projected, +2.2) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) (79.7 projected, +1.5) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 (80.5 projected, +0.8) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (79.7 projected, -0.8) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (77.1 projected, -2.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (74.5 projected, -2.6) 6.72
2014.07 176.0 (1)   29.8 (2A) / 184.6 (2B) / 94.1 (2C) (71.5 projected, -3.0) (3.9)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.