Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 12, 2014 at 04:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update June 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update June 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update June 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update May 1, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 4, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 460 and 642 km/s, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH622.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 168.4 (increasing 14.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 139.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 22121221 (planetary), 22232322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 324) and 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 231) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12079 [N12W68] was quiet and stable.
Region 12080 [S10W51] decayed slowly losing spots and area. There is still a weak magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section, another minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12082 [N15W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12085 [S19W43] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12087 [S18E57] produced another X class flare. The region lost the magnetic delta structure and is likely to become less active unless there is new development. M flares are possible.
New region 12088 [S09W32] was first observed with spots on June 6. New flux and several spots emerged on June 11 and the region was numbered by SWPC.
New region 12089 [N18E17] emerged on June 7 with more flux emerging on June 10 and 11. The region is actually two smaller regions which have emerged very close to each other. A weak magnetic delta structure has formed centrally.
New region 12090 [N25E69] rotated into view on June 10 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3515 [S16W19] reemerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3529 [S08E11] emerged with several spots.
New region S3530 [S19E75] rotated into view.
New region S3531 [S22E60] emerged with a penumbra spot to the south of AR 12087.
New region S3532 [S32E32] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3533 [N18W68] emerged with a few spots to the north of AR 12079.

C2+ Flares (GOES):

Magnitude Time (UTC) Location AR
C3.9 01:28 N17E30 12089
C2.3 03:02 N13W28 12082
C5.0/2N 04:47 S17E71 12087
M1.8 05:34 S12W35 12080
C3.4 06:32 S13E69 12087
C2.8 07:12 S13W35 12080
M3.0/2B 08:09 S14E68 12087
X1.0 09:06 S18E65 12087
C2.3 11:42 S12E62 12080
M3.9 21:03 S21E58 12087

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 9, 11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
June 10: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the X flares in AR 12087. The CME could reach Earth on June 13.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH622) rotated into an Earth facing position on June 8-9.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 12. On June 13-14 unsettled and active intervals are possible due to CME effects.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12079 2014.05.31
2014.06.01
8 9 8 N13W69 0120 DAO DSC area: 0190
12081 2014.06.01
2014.06.04
      N05W71           location: N04W59
12080 2014.06.02
2014.06.03
14 29 13 S11W50 0360 DKC DKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0440

S3499 2014.06.03       S09W55           plage
S3501 2014.06.04       S23W49           plage
12082 2014.06.04
2014.06.05
14 25 13 N15W41 0220 DAI DAO area: 0300
S3505 2014.06.05       S15W32           plage
12085 2014.06.05
2014.06.06
25 39 20 S20W43 0480 EKC EKC beta-gamma

area: 0560

12084 2014.06.06 2     S13W81 0010 AXX     spotless
12088 2014.06.06
2014.06.11
6 14 6 S11W33 0020 CRO DRI  
12089 2014.06.07
2014.06.11
6 18 12 N18E16 0020 CRO DAC beta-gamma-delta
S3515 2014.06.07   2 1 S16W19 0007   BXO    
S3516 2014.06.07       N22E11           plage
12086 2014.06.08       N03W09         plage
S3522 2014.06.08       S20W04         plage
12087 2014.06.09
2014.06.10
10 19 10 S18E57 0180 DSC DSC beta-gamma

area: 0330

S3524 2014.06.09       S16E17         plage
S3525 2014.06.09       N07W34         plage
12090 2014.06.10
2014.06.11
1 3 2 N24E65 0080 HSX ESO area: 0240
S3528 2014.06.10       N24W45         plage
S3529 2014.06.11   13 9 S08E11 0060   DRI    
S3530 2014.06.11   8 4 S19E75 0080   DRO    
S3531 2014.06.11   1 1 S22E60 0004   AXX    
S3532 2014.06.11   1   S22E32 0002   AXX    
S3533 2014.06.11   3 2 N18W68 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 86 184 101  
Sunspot number: 176 324 231  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 132 238 155  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 106 113 127 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 (75.8 projected, +0.4) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 82.0 (76.4 projected, +0.6) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.8 (cycle peak) (76.2 projected, -0.2) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 92.2 (76.6 projected, +0.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (75.8 projected, -0.8) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (73.2 projected, -2.6) 5.75
2014.06 131.4 (1)    42.2 (2A) / 115.0 (2B) / 87.2 (2C) (70.5 projected, -2.7) (8.5)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.