Last major update issued on March 3, 2014 at 05:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update March 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update March 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated February 23, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 341 and 393 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 161.3 (decreasing 27.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 154.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.3). Three hour interval K indices: 31000001 (planetary), 21002211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 18 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 386) and 17 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 284) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11987 [S01W47] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11989 [N08W26] developed quickly with new flux emerging. A magnetic delta structure formed and the rergion could produce C and minor M class flares.
Region 11990 [S12W01] decayed slowly. Early on March 3 the opposite polarity spots (which previously were within one penumbra and formed a magnetic delta structure) had completed the split into separate penumbrae.
Region 11991 [S24E15] developed signficantly in the trailing and central spot sections. A magnetic delta structure has formed in the largest trailing penumbra. M class flaring is possible.
Region 11992 [S19W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11993 [N16E04] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11994 [S07W46] was quiet and stable.
Region 11995 [S16W05] was quiet and stable.
New region 11996 [N13E57] emerged on March 1 and developed further on March 2 when it was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3156 [N07W22] developed larger penumbra spots.
S3163 [S06W19] was quiet and stable.
S3164 [N21W05] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3168 [S09W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3176 [N08E71] rotated into view.
New region S3177 [N21E23] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3180 [S06E03] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3181 [S13E17] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3182 [S12E32] emerged with penumbra spots.
AR 11982 produced a C8.2 flare at 00:12 UTC before
rotating out of view.
AR 11986 was spotless early in the day, then began developing small spots in the western section. At 23:19 UTC the region produced an M1.1 flare.
February 28 - March 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH606) could rotate into an Earth facing position on March 6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to occasionally unsettled on March 3-5.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPC has adopted the spots of AR S3168
|S3168||2014.02.26||2||1||S09W80||0090||EAO||AR 11988 for SWPC|
|Total spot count:||70||206||114|
|Sunspot number:||170||386||274||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||118||255||163||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||102||135||151||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.09||102.6||103.7||36.9||(72.8 projected, +3.8)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(73.8 projected, +1.0)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(72.7 projected, -1.1)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(71.6 projected, -1.1)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(71.6 projected, 0.0)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(70.9 projected, -0.7)||10.8|
|2014.03||163.0 (1)||11.2 (2A) / 173.5 (2B) / 123.4 (2C)||(71.0 projected, +0.1)||(4.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.