Last major update issued on March 4, 2014 at 03:45 UTC.
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 3. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 299 and 374 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 161.0 (decreasing 27.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 154.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22212011 (planetary), 22212222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 17 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 362) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 245) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11987 [S02W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11989 [N08W42] produced several low level C flares prior to the M
class flare, after which the region began to decay.
C5+ flare: impulsive M1.2 at 15:58 UTC.
Region 11990 [S12W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11991 [S25E02] still has a magnetic delta structure in the
trailing spot section, an M class flare is possible.
Region 11992 [S20W43] lost the leader spot while a trailing penumbra spot
emerged.
Region 11993 [N17W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11994 [S07W61] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11995 [S17W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 11996 [N13E43] developed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3156 [N07W36] was quiet and stable.
S3163 [S14W32] was quiet and stable.
S3164 [N20W17] was quiet and stable.
S3169 [N12W23] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3176 [N09E58] gained a few penumbra spots.
S3182 [S12E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S3185 [N14E16] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New reigon S3186 [N09E29] emerged with a penumbra spot.
March 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH606) could rotate into an Earth facing position on March 6.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on March 4-8. Effects from CH606 could reach Earth on March 9 and cause some unsettled intervals.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11986 | 2014.02.19 2014.02.20 |
N14W83 |
plage |
||||||||
| 11987 | 2014.02.21 | 10 | 4 | 2 | S02W56 | 0130 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 location: S02W60 |
| 11988 | 2014.02.21 2014.02.22 |
1 | S08W87 | 0010 | AXX |
plage location: S10W83 SWPC has adopted the spots of AR S3168 |
|||||
| 11989 | 2014.02.22 2014.02.23 |
9 | 18 | 8 | N08W42 | 0060 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0100 |
| 11994 | 2014.02.23 2014.02.28 |
2 | 2 | 2 | S07W61 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0070 |
| S3156 | 2014.02.23 | 7 | 5 | N07W36 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11990 | 2014.02.24 | 7 | 14 | 6 | S12W17 | 0210 | DAC | DSC |
 |
 |
area: 0290 location: S12W13 |
| 11991 | 2014.02.25 2014.02.26 |
33 | 50 | 31 | S23W00 | 0330 | EKI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0540 location: S25E02 |
| 11992 | 2014.02.25 2014.02.26 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S19W49 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0003 location: S20W43 |
| S3163 | 2014.02.25 | 5 | 3 | S14W32 | 0012 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3164 | 2014.02.25 | 2 | N20W17 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 11993 | 2014.02.25 2014.02.26 |
8 | 17 | 7 | N16W11 | 0030 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| S3169 | 2014.02.26 | 8 | 2 | N12W23 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 11995 | 2014.02.28 | 13 | 29 | 18 | S17W22 | 0050 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| S3173 | 2014.02.28 | N15E09 | plage | ||||||||
| S3174 | 2014.02.28 | S08W51 | plage | ||||||||
| 11996 | 2014.03.01 2014.03.02 |
7 | 25 | 16 | N14E42 | 0060 | CAI | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| S3176 | 2014.03.02 | 6 | 2 | N09E58 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3177 | 2014.03.02 | N21E10 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3180 | 2014.03.02 | S06W10 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3181 | 2014.03.02 | S13E04 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3182 | 2014.03.02 | 2 | 2 | S12E17 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3185 | 2014.03.03 | 1 | N14E16 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S3186 | 2014.03.03 | 1 | N09E29 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 91 | 192 | 105 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 191 | 362 | 245 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 141 | 224 | 137 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 115 | 127 | 135 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (72.8 projected, +3.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (73.8 projected, +1.0) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (72.7 projected, -1.1) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (71.6 projected, -1.1) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 82.0 | (71.6 projected, 0.0) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.8 (cycle peak) | (70.9 projected, -0.7) | 10.8 |
| 2014.03 | 162.3 (1) | 17.4 (2A) / 179.3 (2B) / 124.6 (2C) | (71.0 projected, +0.1) | (4.6) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
