Last major update issued on March 28, 2014 at 06:30 UTC.
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[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 27. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 357 and 471 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 144.8 (decreasing 25.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 154.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11112110 (planetary), 11242411 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 274) and 13 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 205) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12010 [S13W64] decayed further and was quiet
with the exception of a C4 flare.
Region 12014 [S13W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12017 [N10W08] decayed slowly and
quietly. The region has minor polarity intermixing.
Region 12018 [N03W03] was quiet and stable.
New region 12019 [S10W76] emerged on March 26 and was numbered the next
day by SWPC as the region was decaying.
New region 12020 [S13E28] emerged on March 24, was spotless the next day
and reemerged with several spots on March 26 with SWPC numbering the region on
March 27.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3248 [N01W23] lost the southern spots and gained penumbra spots further
north.
S3262 [S11E04] gained a few penumbra spots.
S3266 [S22W27] developed slowly and quietly.
S3267 [S22E45] gained a trailing penumbra spot.
New region S3269 [S15W50] emerged with several spots early in the day,
then decayed and had a penumbra spot left by the end of the day.
New region S3270 [N17E78] rotated into view.
New region S3271 [S23E20] emerged with several spots.
New region S3272 [N18E18] emerged with penumbra spots in an old
plage region.
March 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH609) will rotate into an Earth facing position on March 28-29.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 28-30. On March 31 and April 1 there's a chance of unsettled intervals due to coronal hole effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12010 | 2014.03.16 2014.03.17 |
17 | 17 | 8 | S15W68 | 0080 | DAO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S13W64 |
| 12012 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
S09W65 |
plage location: S16W50 |
||||||||
| 12013 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.18 |
N15W53 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12016 | 2014.03.17 2014.03.22 |
S28W63 | plage | ||||||||
| 12014 | 2014.03.18 2014.03.19 |
35 | 26 | 18 | S15W32 | 0290 | EHI | DSI |
 |
 |
location: S13W34 |
| S3248 | 2014.03.20 | 2 | 1 | N01W23 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12017 | 2014.03.21 2014.03.22 |
16 | 29 | 16 | N10W07 | 0160 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| S3255 | 2014.03.22 | S12W12 | plage | ||||||||
| S3256 | 2014.03.22 | S08W13 | plage | ||||||||
| S3259 | 2014.03.23 | S20W13 | plage | ||||||||
| 12018 | 2014.03.24 | 9 | 17 | 12 | N03W04 | 0070 | DSI | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| 12020 | 2014.03.24 2014.03.27 |
5 | 16 | 7 | S14E28 | 0010 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S3262 | 2014.03.24 | 9 | 3 | S11E04 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S3263 | 2014.03.25 | S39W33 | plage | ||||||||
| S3264 | 2014.03.26 | N08E39 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12019 | 2014.03.26 2014.03.27 |
3 | 1 | 1 | S10W76 | 0010 | BXO | AXX |
 |
 |
|
| S3266 | 2014.03.26 | 3 | 2 | S22W27 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3267 | 2014.03.26 | 4 | 1 | S22E45 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S3269 | 2014.03.27 | 1 | 1 | S15W50 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3270 | 2014.03.27 | 1 | 1 | N17E78 | 0040 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S3271 | 2014.03.27 | 5 | 4 | S23E20 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S3272 | 2014.03.27 | 3 | N18E18 | 0007 | BXO | images/AR_S3272_20140327_2345.png | |||||
| Total spot count: | 85 | 134 | 75 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 145 | 274 | 205 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 110 | 158 | 99 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 87 | 96 | 113 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 118.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 105.0 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 123.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 101.8 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 110.2 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 125.9 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | (72.8 projected, +3.8) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | (73.8 projected, +1.0) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | (72.7 projected, -1.1) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | (71.6 projected, -1.1) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 82.0 | (71.6 projected, 0.0) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.8 (cycle peak) | (70.9 projected, -0.7) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 150.3 (1) | 123.9 (2A) / 142.3 (2B) / 118.0 (2C) | (71.0 projected, +0.1) | (4.9) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
