Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 15, 2014 at 06:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 422 and 681 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 161.0 (increasing 4.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 144.0 - the highest since May 27, 2014). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33312232 (planetary), 32313331 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 261) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 173) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12205 [N13W65] decayed quickly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12207 [S10W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12208 [S12E04] decayed slowly producing a few low level C flares.
Region 12209 [S15E68] has a very large trailing penumbra with a magnetic delta in the northern part. A major flare is possible.
Region 12210 [N05E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12211 [N08W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12212 [N16E16] emerged on November 12 with SWPC numbering the region 2 days later as it began to decay.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3971 [S11W26] was quiet and stable.
S3983 [S17W13] was quiet and stable.
New region S3989 [S10E38] emerged quickly with several spots during the latter half of the day.
New region S3990 [S10E13] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3991 [N10W08] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3992 [S17E18] emerged with a penumbra spot.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C3.2 05:52 S12E16 12208  
C4.2 06:02   12208  
C5.4 07:48 S13E80 12209  
C3.1 (LDE) 15:08 N19W58 12205 triggered filament eruption
C3.3 20:11   S3990  
C2.0/1F 23:39 S12E71 12209  

 A large filament eruption with an associated CME was observed near the northeast limb 06-09 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH642) was in an Earth facing position on November 13-14. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH643) will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on November 16-18.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 15-20 with a chance of active intervals due to coronal hole high speed streams.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12205 2014.11.03 12 14 9 N14W64 0120 DAI CAO

 

12206 2014.11.04       S15W87            
S3963 2014.11.04       S23W58           plage
S3970 2014.11.07       S05W37           plage
S3971 2014.11.07   2   S11W26 0004   BXO  
12207 2014.11.07
2014.11.08
2 5 3 S09W13 0010 AXX AXX  
S3973 2014.11.07       N18W29           plage
12208 2014.11.08
2014.11.09
29 47 22 S12E03 0120 EAC DRI  
S3977 2014.11.08       S15W38         plage
S3978 2014.11.08       N19W30           plage
S3980 2014.11.09       N09W27           plage
12210 2014.11.10
2014.11.13
  3 1 N05E18 0007   BXO  
12211 2014.11.10
2014.11.13
3 5 2 N08W54 0020 CRO CRO  
S3983 2014.11.11   4 3 S17W13 0012   AXX  
12209 2014.11.12 9 32 14 S15E56 0680 FKC FKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S15E68

area: 1310

S3985 2014.11.12       S07E37           plage
12212 2014.11.12
2014.11.14
2 5 2 N16E16 0010 HRX CRO  
S3987 2014.11.12       N29W28           plage
S3988 2014.11.13       N11W14         plage
S3989 2014.11.14   7 3 S10E38 0020   CRO    
S3990 2014.11.14   5 3 S10E13 0012   BXO    
S3991 2014.11.14   1 1 N10W08 0004   AXX    
S3992 2014.11.14   1   S17E18 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 57 131 63  
Sunspot number: 117 261 173  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 83 158 90  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 70 91 95 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 136.5 (1)   43.1 (2A) / 92.4 (2B) / 88.7 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (8.6)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.