Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 29, 2014 at 05:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated November 22, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 341 and 413 km/s, weakly under the influence of a stream from CH644 after 07h UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly northwards all day resulting in no significant geomagnetic disturbance. The IMF saw some southwards excursion early on November 29.

Solar flux at 18h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 181.4 (increasing 61.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 150.1 - the highest since May 5, 2014). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00002211 (planetary), 10002321 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 304) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 215) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12216 [S13W38] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12217 [S18E02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12218 [N16E17] was quiet and stable.
Region 12219 [N03W34] extended longitudinally and still has M class flare potential.
Region 12220 [S16W26] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12221 [N04E44] was quiet and appears to be slowly decaying.
Region 12222 [S19E43] developed slowly and could produce an M class flare.
Region 12223 [N17W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12224 [S24E33] emerged on November 26 and decayed on November 28 when it was numbered by SWPC.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4020 [N15E05] reemerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4043 [N13W45] emerged with penumbra spots.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C7.5 00:40 S25E47 12224  
C2.9 04:22   12222  
C2.0 11:20   12222  
C3.1 20:16 SE limb    

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH644) was in an Earth facing position on November 25-26. The development of AR 12219 reduced the southernmost extension of this CH.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 29 - December 1 with a chance of unsettled intervals on November 29 due to weak effects from CH644.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12216 2014.11.19
2014.11.20
10 30 12 S13W38 0200 DAO DKI

beta-gamma

area: 0280

S4008 2014.11.19       N21W43           plage
S4012 2014.11.21       S03W59           plage
12217 2014.11.22
2014.11.23
5 19 10 S20E01 0070 CAO CAO location: S18E02
S4016 2014.11.22       N12W31           plage
S4020 2014.11.23   3 3 N15E05 0010   BXO   plage
12218 2014.11.23 1 4 1 N16E15 0140 HSX CSO

area: 0220

S4023 2014.11.23       N02W43           plage
12219 2014.11.24 16 36 19 N04W34 0250 EKC EKC beta-gamma

area: 0410

12220 2014.11.24 2 4 4 S16W27 0010 BXO CRO  
S4028 2014.11.24       S05W08           plage
S4029 2014.11.24       N11W54         plage
S4030 2014.11.24       N00W50           plage
12221 2014.11.25
2014.11.26
16 31 19 N04E43 0200 EAC DAC  
S4033 2014.11.25       S08W26           plage
12222 2014.11.26 17 42 24 S20E44 0330 EHC EKC beta-gamma

area: 0620

12224 2014.11.26
2014.11.28
4 6 2 S24E29 0010 BXO BXO  
12223 2014.11.26
2014.11.27
5 12 6 N17W25 0010 BXO CRI area: 0030
S4037 2014.11.26       N12W02         plage
S4038 2014.11.26       S28W24           plage
S4039 2014.11.27       S19E19         plage
S4041 2014.11.27       N26E05         plage
S4042 2014.11.27       S05E24         plage
S4043 2014.11.28   7 5 N13W45 0015   BXO    
Total spot count: 76 194 105  
Sunspot number: 166 304 215  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 116 245 156  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 100 106 118 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (80.3 projected, -1.6) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (78.7 projected, -1.6) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (77.1 projected, -1.6) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (74.7 projected, -3.0) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (71.5 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (69.0 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 153.1 (1)   91.6 (2A) / 98.1 (2B) / 86.3 (2C) (67.3 projected, -1.7) (9.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.