Last major update issued on September 9, 2014 at 04:45 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
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September 6, 2014)]
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2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
September 6, 2014]
[Presentations:
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)
/
4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 302 and 441 km/s. A weak low speed stream from CH634 arrived at about 05h UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northwards resulting in only minor geomagnetic effects.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 164 (increasing 60 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 133.4. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 01211112 (planetary), 12312222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 324) and 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 222) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12154 [S18W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12155 [S19E08] was mostly unchanged, however,
a small negative polarity umbra emerged near the leader spots.
Region 12157 [S14E19] decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta
structure in the southwestern part of the largest penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 12158 [N15E28] gained spots and increased in area. The large
penumbra appears to be splitting in the southeastern part, which would remove
the magnetic delta structure if the development continues. An X class event
is possible.
Region 12159 [S20E34] was quiet and stable.
Region 12161 [S12W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 12162 [N09W32] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12163 [S16E51] developed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3791 [N12W17] reemerged with a few spots.
New region S3808 [S11W17] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3809 [N24W37] emerged with a penumbra spot.
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Comment |
| C5.1 | 00:08 | 12157 | ||
| C4.6 | 03:22 | S12E51 | 12157 | |
| C2.7 | 16:26 | 12157 | ||
| C2.1 | 19:07 | N15E28 | 12158 | |
| C4.0 | 23:13 | 12157 | ||
| M4.5/1N (LDE) | 00:29 (Sept.9) | 12158 | event began at 23:30 UTC. CME |
September 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
September 9: Early LASCO imagery indicate at least a partial halo CME
associated with the M4.5 flare in AR 12158, the CME was first visible in LASCO
C2 at 00:16 UTC.
[Coronal hole history (since October
2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial extension of a northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH634) was in an Earth facing position on September 5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 9-10 with a chance of unsettled intervals on September due to effects from CH634. Late on September 11 or early on September 12 a CME could arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12152 | 2014.08.26 2014.08.28 |
1 | S15W92 | 0030 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| S3781 | 2014.08.31 | S08W35 | plage | ||||||||
| 12154 | 2014.09.01 2014.09.02 |
3 | S16W44 | 0009 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S3791 | 2014.09.03 | 3 | 2 | N12W17 | 0013 | CRO |
 |
||||
| 12155 | 2014.09.03 | 4 | 27 | 16 | S19E06 | 0100 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S19E08 |
| 12157 | 2014.09.03 2014.09.04 |
37 | 75 | 44 | S14E17 | 0450 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| 12156 | 2014.09.03 2014.09.04 |
N15W00 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 12158 | 2014.09.04 | 10 | 62 | 33 | N15E28 | 0380 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0940 location: N15E42 |
| S3796 | 2014.09.04 | N08W39 | plage | ||||||||
| 12159 | 2014.09.05 | 3 | 21 | 11 | S20E34 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
|
| 12162 | 2014.09.05 2014.09.06 |
1 | 8 | 7 | N09W34 | 0010 | HRX | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 |
| S3799 | 2014.09.05 | S04W17 | plage | ||||||||
| 12160 | 2014.09.05 2014.09.06 |
5 | S09W80 | 0040 | CRO |
 |
spotless |
||||
| S3801 | 2014.09.05 | N02W53 | plage | ||||||||
| 12161 | 2014.09.06 | 2 | 2 | 2 | S14W36 | 0020 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
|
| 12163 | 2014.09.06 2014.09.07 |
5 | 10 | 4 | S17E51 | 0050 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 |
| S3806 | 2014.09.07 | S09W38 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3808 | 2014.09.08 | 2 | 2 | S11W17 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S3809 | 2014.09.08 | 1 | 1 | N24W37 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 68 | 214 | 122 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 158 | 324 | 222 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 112 | 256 | 164 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 95 | 113 | 122 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | 73.1 (+4.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | 75.0 (+1.9) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | 75.4 (+0.4) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | (80.3 projected, +1.9) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | (81.0 projected, +0.7) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | (79.2 projected, -1.8) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | (76.6 projected, -2.6) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | (73.6 projected, -3.0) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | (70.1 projected, -3.5) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 145.1 (1) | 34.8 (2A) / 130.6 (2B) / 75.3 (2C) | (65.9 projected, -4.2) | (6.9) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
