Last major update issued on September 10, 2014 at 05:15 UTC. Update at 19:05 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update September 1, 2014)] [Cycle
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[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update September 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
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[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
September 6, 2014)]
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2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
September 6, 2014]
[Presentations:
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)
/
4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 328 and 433 km/s, weakly under the influence of a low speed stream from CH634.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 159 (increasing 56.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 133.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22121122 (planetary), 22113322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 321) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 216) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12155 [S20W06] has weak polarity intermixing
and was quiet.
Region 12157 [S14E06] was mostly quiet. There is still a magnetic delta
structure in the southern part of the largest penumbra. An M class flare is
possible.
Region 12158 [N16E15] was quiet after the flare late on September 8. The
region is losing its magnetic delta, however, there is still a chance of a major
flare.
Region 12159 [S21E19] was quiet and stable.
Region 12161 [S13W48] was quiet and stable.
Region 12162 [N09W45] lost a few spots and was quiet.
Region 12163 [S16E37] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3791 [N14W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3808 [S09W33] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3811 [S23E34] was split off from AR 12159.
New region S3812 [S14E59] emerged with penumbra
spots.
New region S3813 [N14E48] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3814 [N13E02] emerged with a penumbra spot.
Minor update posted at 19:05 UTC on September 10: AR 12158 produced a long duration major X1.6 flare peaking at 17:45 UTC while near the center of the disk. A wave travelled quuckly across a large part of the visible solar disk after the peak of the flare. A large and fast CME is likely to have been generated and could reach Earth on September 12.
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Comment |
| C3.2/1N | 12:26 | S08E12 | 12157 |
September 7-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
September 9: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the M4.5 flare in AR 12158
late on Sept.8.
[Coronal hole history (since October
2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 10. Late on September 11 or early on September 12 a CME could arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S3781 | 2014.08.31 | S08W48 | plage | ||||||||
| 12154 | 2014.09.01 2014.09.02 |
S16W58 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3791 | 2014.09.03 | 2 | 1 | N14W32 | 0008 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| 12155 | 2014.09.03 | 9 | 25 | 10 | S21W08 | 0060 | DAC | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S20W06 |
| 12157 | 2014.09.03 2014.09.04 |
39 | 70 | 42 | S14E03 | 0480 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| 12156 | 2014.09.03 2014.09.04 |
N15W14 | plage | ||||||||
| 12158 | 2014.09.04 | 25 | 49 | 31 | N15E14 | 0420 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0800 |
| S3796 | 2014.09.04 | N08W52 | plage | ||||||||
| 12159 | 2014.09.05 | 5 | 12 | 5 | S21E22 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S21E19 |
| 12162 | 2014.09.05 2014.09.06 |
7 | 7 | 4 | N09W48 | 0030 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: N09W45 |
| S3799 | 2014.09.05 | S04W30 | plage | ||||||||
| 12161 | 2014.09.06 | 1 | 2 | 2 | S13W50 | 0010 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S13W48 |
| 12163 | 2014.09.06 2014.09.07 |
6 | 16 | 8 | S17E37 | 0110 | DAO | DSI |
 |
 |
|
| S3806 | 2014.09.07 | S09W51 | plage | ||||||||
| S3808 | 2014.09.08 | 1 | S09W33 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S3809 | 2014.09.08 | N24W50 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3811 | 2014.09.09 | 2 | S23E34 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S3812 | 2014.09.09 | 3 | 1 | S14E59 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S3813 | 2014.09.09 | 1 | 1 | N14E48 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3814 | 2014.09.09 | 1 | 1 | N13E02 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 92 | 191 | 106 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 162 | 321 | 216 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 125 | 233 | 148 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 97 | 112 | 119 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 134.3 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 113.7 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 57.0 | 65.5 (+2.9) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 118.3 | 66.0 | 69.0 (+3.5) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | 73.1 (+4.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | 75.0 (+1.9) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | 75.4 (+0.4) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | (80.3 projected, +1.9) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | (81.0 projected, +0.7) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | (79.2 projected, -1.8) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | (76.6 projected, -2.6) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | (73.6 projected, -3.0) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | (70.1 projected, -3.5) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.7 (1) | 40.2 (2A) / 134.1 (2B) / 77.6 (2C) | (65.9 projected, -4.2) | (6.8) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
