Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 13, 2015 at 04:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update February 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update February 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update February 1, 2015)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update February 1, 2015)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update February 1, 2015)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated January 25, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 358 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 127.6 (increasing 2.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 148.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 10012111 (planetary), 10002221 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 177) and 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 127) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12280 [S08W82] decayed slowly while rotating to the west limb.
Region 12281 [N14W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12282 [N14E15] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 12283 [N06W09] emerged with a few spots.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4198 [S18W33] was quiet and stable.
S4210 [N11E29] was quiet and stable.
S4211 [S16E28] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S4214 [N08E17] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region S4217 [S04E38] emerged with small spots.
New region S4218 [N15E70] emerged near the east limb.
New region S4219 [N17W17] was observed with a penumbra spot.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C6.0/1N 02:12 S06W70 12280  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 11-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
February 10: The M2 flare in AR 12282 just before midnight on February was associated with a large and wide CME. While most of the ejecta was seen off the east limb, there were weak extensions off the southwest limb and partly off the northwest limb. The partial halo CME could cause a glancing blow to the magnetosphere on February 13.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH653) was in an Earth facing position on February 10-12, CH653 has not been associated with geomagnetic disturbances during previous rotations, however, the coronal hole extended on February 9-11.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 13-15 with a chance of active intervals on February 13-14. Weak geomagnetic effects associated with CH653 are possible on February 13-14. If there is a glancing blow from the CME observed after the M2 event in AR 12282 late on February 9, there will be a chance of active intervals on February 13.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12280 2015.02.02 3 3 2 S06W81 0140 CSO HAX

 

12281 2015.02.03   3 2 N13W48 0006   AXX location: N14W40
S4198 2015.02.04   9 2 S18W33 0020   BXO images/AR_S4198_20150212_2345.png images/AR_S4198_20150211_2345.png  
12282 2015.02.07 15 12 4 N10E16 0240 ESO CSO

location: N14E15

area: 0220

split off from AR S4214

S4206 2015.02.07       S12E13           plage
S4207 2015.02.08       N07W04           plage
S4208 2015.02.08       S09W23           plage
S4209 2015.02.09       N12W36           plage
S4210 2015.02.10   4   N11E29 0007   BXO  
S4211 2015.02.10   5 2 S16E28 0010   BXO images/AR_S4211_20150212_2345.png    
S4212 2015.02.10       N28W09           plage
S4213 2015.02.10       N24W57           plage
S4214 2015.02.11   16 5 N08E17 0200   CAO  
S4215 2015.02.11       S03E33         plage
12283
(S4216)
2015.02.12 2 6 5 N06W09 0020 CRO CRO    
S4217 2015.02.12   6 3 S04E38 0013   CRO    
S4218 2015.02.12   2 1 N15E70 0015   CRO    
S4219 2015.02.12   1 1 N17W17 0004   AXX  

 

Total spot count: 20 67 27  
Sunspot number: 50 177 127  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 33 91 51  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 30 62 70 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 81.9 (+1.1)
(likely solar max)
7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 80.5 (-1.4) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 79.7 (-0.8) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 78.6 (-1.1) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (76.2 projected, -2.4) 7.71
2014.09 146.6 148.1 87.6 (73.0 projected, -3.2) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 60.6 (70.5 projected, -2.5) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 70.1 (68.8 projected, -1.7) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 78.0 (67.7 projected, -1.1) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 67.0 (66.5 projected, -1.2) 9.46
2015.02 143.8 (1)   36.3 (2A) / 88.9 (2B) / 76.3 (2C) (64.9 projected, -1.6) (9.5)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.