Last major update issued on January 12, 2015 at 04:50 UTC.
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[Presentations:
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)
/
4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 388 and 580 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH649.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 153.7 (decreasing 15.6 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 155.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.9). Three hour interval K indices: 23222310 (planetary), 13233321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 265) and 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 185) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12255 [S14W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12257 [N06W53] has a magnetic delta in a
central northern penumbra and could produce an M class flare.
Region 12258 [N16E12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12259 [S16E30] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12260 [N08W19] developed as new flux emerged.
Region 12261 [S11E46] was quiet and stable.
Region 12262 [S02W30] developed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4134 [S18W06] was quiet and stable.
S4142 [S18W48] developed further and has a weak magnetic delta structure
in a northern penumbra.
New region S4143 [S16E07] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S4144 [N10W43] emerged with a penumbra spot.
C2+ flares (GOES):
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Comment |
| C3.3 (LDE) | 02:53 | 12257 | ||
| C4.2 | 05:43 | 12257 | ||
| C3.4 (LDE) | 09:24 | N08W44 | 12257 |
January 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October
2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 12-14.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12255 | 2015.01.01 | 18 | 4 | 2 | S15W55 | 0130 | EAO | CRO |
 |
 |
apparently SWPC failed to recognize AR S4142 as a separate region |
| 12257 | 2015.01.03 2015.01.06 |
24 | 29 | 17 | N07W55 | 0450 | EKC | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N06W53 |
| 12258 | 2015.01.06 | 3 | 8 | 2 | N16E12 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 12259 | 2015.01.06 2015.01.08 |
8 | 41 | 26 | S16E26 | 0310 | EKO | EKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0440 location: S16E30 |
| S4133 | 2015.01.07 | N12W35 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S4134 | 2015.01.07 | 7 | 4 | S18W06 | 0020 | AXX | images/AR_S4134_20150111_2345.png | images/AR_S4134_20150110_2345.png | |||
| 12260 | 2015.01.08 2015.01.09 |
4 | 21 | 13 | N09W17 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0070 location: N08W19 |
| 12261 | 2015.01.08 2015.01.09 |
2 | 3 | 1 | S11E45 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| S4137 | 2015.01.09 | N06W42 | plage | ||||||||
| S4138 | 2015.01.09 | S26W36 | plage | ||||||||
| 12262 | 2015.01.10 | 4 | 20 | 10 | S01W31 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| S4141 | 2015.01.10 | S01E09 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S4142 | 2015.01.10 | 18 | 8 | S18W48 | 0150 | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta | ||
| S4143 | 2015.01.11 | 3 | 2 | S16E07 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S4144 | 2015.01.11 | 1 | N10W43 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|
||||
| Total spot count: | 63 | 155 | 85 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 133 | 265 | 185 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 99 | 189 | 119 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 80 | 93 | 102 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 103.7 | 36.9 | 73.1 (+4.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 131.2 | 85.6 | 75.0 (+1.9) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 145.1 | 77.6 | 75.4 (+0.4) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 143.1 | 90.3 | 76.0 (+0.6) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | 80.8 (+2.4) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | 81.9 (+1.1) (likely solar max) |
7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | 80.5 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | 79.7 (-0.8) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | (78.6 projected, -1.1) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | (76.2 projected, -2.4) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 87.6 | (73.0 projected, -3.2) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 60.6 | (70.5 projected, -2.5) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 70.1 | (68.8 projected, -1.7) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 78.0 | (67.7 projected, -1.1) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 147.8 (1) | 40.7 (2A) / 114.8 (2B) / 88.8 (2C) | (66.5 projected, -1.2) | (12.8) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
