The geomagnetic field was unsettled to very severe storm on June 23 under the influence of CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 485 and 717 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 116.1 (increasing 20.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 128.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 68 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 68.5). Three hour interval K indices: 78655344 (planetary), 67654343 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 2 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 81) and 1 active region using 1K resolution (SN: 45) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12371 [N11W24] decayed significantly as penumbrae fragmented into smaller parts and the large magnetic delta in the trailing spot section disappeared. There is still a small magnetic delta and an M class event is possible the next few days while the region decays.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S4568 [N32E28] emerged early in the day, then decayed slowly.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 12:20 | N13W19 | 12371 | SDO/EVE | C1.9 @ GOES15 |
June 21: A halo CME was observed after an M2 flare in AR 12371 early in day.
The CME reached Earth on June 22.
June 22: A full halo CME was observed in association with an M6 flare in
AR 12371. The CME could reach Earth on June 24.
June 23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on June 24-25 due to effects from the CME which arrived on June 22 and the CME expected to arrive during the day. Quiet to active conditions are likely on June 26.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12367 | 2015.06.10 2015.06.11 |
7 | S20W92 | 0120 | EAC |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 12369 | 2015.06.12 2015.06.13 |
N06W87 |
location: N06W75 |
||||||||
| 12371 | 2015.06.15 2015.06.16 |
34 | 60 | 35 | N12W28 | 0950 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N11W24 |
| S4557 | 2015.06.16 | N20W42 |
 |
||||||||
| S4560 | 2015.06.19 | S23W16 | |||||||||
| S4562 | 2015.06.20 | S03W51 | |||||||||
| S4563 | 2015.06.20 | S09E11 |
 |
||||||||
| S4564 | 2015.06.21 | N14E48 |
 |
||||||||
| S4565 | 2015.06.21 | S10W04 | |||||||||
| 12372 | 2015.06.22 | N20W82 |
 |
||||||||
| S4567 | 2015.06.22 | S09W31 |
 |
||||||||
| S4568 | 2015.06.23 | 1 | N32E22 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 41 | 61 | 35 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 61 | 81 | 45 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 56 | 71 | 45 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 37 | 28 | 25 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | 80.8 (+2.4) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | 81.9 (+1.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | 80.5 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | 79.7 (-0.8) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | 78.5 (-1.2) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | 75.5 (-3.0) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 87.6 | 70.8 (-4.7) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 60.6 | 67.3 (-3.5) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 70.1 | 65.4 (-1.9) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 78.0 | (63.5 projected, -1.9) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 67.0 | (61.3 projected, -2.2) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 44.8 | (59.6 projected, -1.7) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 38.4 | (57.2 projected, -2.4) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 54.4 | (54.6 projected, -2.6) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 58.8 | (52.4 projected, -2.2) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | (128.9) | 69.2 (2A) / 90.3 (2B) / 60.4 (2C) | (49.6 projected, -2.8) | (13.3) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
