Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 7, 2015 at 06:40 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (November 1, 2015)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (November 1, 2015) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (November 1, 2015) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (October 13, 2015)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 6, initially under the influence of effects from CH697. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 423 and 714 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 17:32 UT, this was the arrival of the CME observed on November 4.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 115.2 (increasing 33.8 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 104.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.3). Three hour interval K indices: 41222144 (planetary), 32112234 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 192) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 129) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12443 [N06W40] decayed further losing penumbral area and spots. The region was quiet.
Region 12447 [N03W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12448 [N05E52] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 12449 [S12E76] rotated into view and developed during the day. A minor M class flare is possible.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4869 [N16W71] gained spots and was quiet. This is AR 12446 to SWPC.
S4871 [N03E39] developed slowly and quietly.
S4875 [S13W19] was quiet and stable.
New region S4877 [N07W15] emerged with tiny spots just north of AR 12447.
New region S4878 [S22E80] rotated into view and is somewhat unstable.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C2.2 14:45   S4878 SDO/EVE C1.8 @ 14:46 @ GOES15
C4.4 18:11 S13E77 12449 GOES15  

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 5-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 4: A partial halo CME was observed after the M3 LDE in AR 12443. The CME reached Earth at approximately 18:30 UT.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

The southernmost parts of a large northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH698) will be in an Earth facing position on November 5-8.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on November 7 due to CME effects. Effects from CH698 will likely cause unsettled to active conditions on November 8-11 with a chance of minor storm intervals.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.

0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12441 2015.10.27       N15W88            
12443 2015.10.28
2015.10.29
21 43 22 N07W37 0220 FSC ESI

area: 0380

location: N06W40

12444 2015.10.28
2015.10.29
      S04W59            
S4860 2015.10.29       N19W25            
S4861 2015.10.30       N11W53            
S4865 2015.10.31       S13W56            
12446 2015.10.31
2015.11.01
5     N16W71 0020 CRO       see AR S4869
S4867 2015.10.31       N32W35            
S4868 2015.10.31       S01W51            
S4869 2015.11.01   8 4 N16W71 0025   BXO  
12447 2015.11.03 1 3   N04W15 0000 AXX BXO area: 0003

location: N03W14

S4871 2015.11.03   6 3 N03E43 0013   BXO  
12448 2015.11.03
2015.11.04
5 25 9 N06E45 0110 DAO DAI area: 0290

location: N06E52

S4873 2015.11.03       S13W33            
S4875 2015.11.05   1 1 S13W19 0003   AXX  
12449 2015.11.06 4 10 6 S12E72 0030 CRO DAC   location: S12E76

area: 0270

S4877 2015.11.06   2 2 N07W15 0007   BXO    
S4878 2015.11.06   4 2 S22E80 0020   CRO    
Total spot count: 36 102 49  
Sunspot number: 86 192 129  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 52 120 67  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 95 106 110 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.09 146.6 148.1 130.0 101.9 (-6.4) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 90.0 97.3 (-4.6) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 103.6 94.7 (-2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.9 (-3.3) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 (76.3 projected, -2.6) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 (72.6 projected, -3.7) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 (68.9 projected, -3.7) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (67.7 projected, -1.2) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (68.0 projected, +0.3) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (67.1 projected, -0.9) 14.02
2015.11 (117.1)   17.7 (2A) / 88.5 (2B) / 85.7 (2C) (65.0 projected, -2.1) (15.7)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.