Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 11, 2015 at 04:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (November 1, 2015)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (November 1, 2015) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (November 1, 2015) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (November 1, 2015) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (October 13, 2015)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was active to minor storm on November 10 under the influence of effects from CH698. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 569 and 768 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 105.4 (increasing 4.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 104.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 34 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 33.6). Three hour interval K indices: 44455444 (planetary), 43655433 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 165) and 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 109) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12448 [N06W00] was quiet and stable.
Region 12449 [S12E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12450 [S22E19] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4860 [N18W74] decayed after the C flare.
S4882 [S24E03] gained a tiny trailing spot.
New region S4883 [S08E58] emerged with a few spots.
New region S4884 [S15E73] rotated into view.
New region S4885 [S15W77] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S4886 [S28E33] was observed with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C3.7 14:11 N06W90 12443 GOES15  
C2.7 16:54 S15E77 S4884 GOES15  

Flare activity (SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 8, 10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 9: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the M4 LDE in AR 12449. The CME could reach Earth during the latter half of November 11 or early on November 12.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

The southernmost parts of a large northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH698) were in an Earth facing position on November 5-8. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH699) rotated across the central meridian on November 9-10. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH700) could rotate into an Easrth facing position on November 13-15.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 11 due to effects from CH698, minor storm intervals are possible. The November 9 CME could arrive on November 11 or 12 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Potential effects from CH699 on November 12-13 may not be observable due to CME effects.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.

0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12443 2015.10.28
2015.10.29
1     N07W95 0060 HSX     rotated out of view
S4860 2015.10.29   1 1 N18W74 0005   AXX  
12447 2015.11.03       N04W75            
12451 2015.11.03
2015.11.07
2     N05W17 0010 AXX     spotless
12448 2015.11.03
2015.11.04
8 27 16 N06W00 0060 CAO DAI beta-gamma

area: 0120

12449 2015.11.06 14 33 16 S13E18 0120 DAI DAI beta-gamma

location: S12E20

area: 0130

12450 2015.11.06
2015.11.07
  6 3 S23E22 0020   CRO

location: S22E19

S4879 2015.11.07       N30W34            
S4880 2015.11.08       N17W45            
S4881 2015.11.09       S08E36          
S4882 2015.11.09   2   S24E03 0003   BXO  
S4883 2015.11.10   3 1 S08E58 0012   AXX    
S4884 2015.11.10   1 1 S15E73 0004   AXX    
S4885 2015.11.10   1 1 S15W77 0003   AXX    
S4886 2015.11.10   1   S28E33 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 25 75 39  
Sunspot number: 65 165 109  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 40 88 52  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 72 91 93 k * (sunspot number)
As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2014.09 146.6 148.1 130.0 101.9 (-6.4) 9.78
2014.10 153.4 152.9 90.0 97.3 (-4.6) 8.96
2014.11 154.8 151.4 103.6 94.7 (-2.6) 9.33
2014.12 158.7 153.8 112.9 92.2 (-2.5) 11.24
2015.01 141.9 137.3 93.0 89.3 (-2.9) 9.46
2015.02 129.1 126.0 66.7 86.1 (-3.2) 9.92
2015.03 125.9 124.6 54.5 82.2 (-3.9) 16.14
2015.04 128.8 129.7 75.3 78.9 (-3.3) 10.73
2015.05 120.0 122.6 88.8 (76.3 projected, -2.6) 8.29
2015.06 122.3 126.1 66.5 (72.6 projected, -3.7) 13.15
2015.07 107.0 110.8 66.4 (68.9 projected, -3.7) 8.83
2015.08 105.4 108.0 64.6 (67.7 projected, -1.2) 14.58
2015.09 101.7 102.7 78.1 (68.0 projected, +0.3) 15.78
2015.10 104.1 103.3 61.7 (67.1 projected, -0.9) 14.02
2015.11 (113.8)   27.1 (2A) / 81.2 (2B) / 90.1 (2C) (65.0 projected, -2.1) (20.0)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.