The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 13, weakly under the influence of a low speed stream associated with CH714. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 341 and 431 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 110.3 (increasing 9.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 105.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 22321101 (planetary), 13322321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 176) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 97) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12496 [N07W50] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12497 [N12W35] lost spots, however, the magnetic layout in and
around the largest penumbra is a mess with multiple deltas and strong polarity
intermixing. Further M class flaring is likely.
Region 12498 [N19E09] gained a trailer spot and was quiet.
Region 12499 [N10E30] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12500 [S18W28] emerged with several
spots and has polarity intermixing.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5100 [N06E50] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S5105 [S11E45] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S5106 [N08E42] was observed with tiny spots.
New region S5107 [S08W15] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.8 | 10:09 | N13W27 | 12497 | GOES15 | |
| M1.8/1B | 15:24 | N11W29 | 12497 | GOES15 | M2.1 @ SDO/EVE |
| C2.5 | 21:05 | N14W33 | 12497 | GOES15 | |
| C2.1 | 22:13 | N06E90 | GOES15 | source: AR at the NE limb |
February 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available LASCO imagery.
February 11: A halo CME was observed after the C8 LDE in AR 12497. The
CME could reach Earth on February 14.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
An extension (CH715) of the southern polar coronal hole will rotate across the central meridian on February 13-14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on February 14. During the latter half of the day or early on February 15 the February 11 CME is expected to arrive and could cause unsettled to major storm conditions. A high speed stream associated with CH715 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on February 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12496 |
2016.02.04 2016.02.05 |
7 | 1 | N08W51 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S5082 | 2016.02.04 | N14W53 | |||||||||
| 12497 |
2016.02.05 2016.02.06 |
23 | 47 | 24 | N12W35 | 0220 | EAC | EKC |
 |
 |
gamma-delta area: 0340 |
| S5086 | 2016.02.05 | S19W33 |
 |
||||||||
| S5092 | 2016.02.07 | N18W57 | |||||||||
| 12498 |
2016.02.08 2016.02.09 |
6 | 3 | N18E02 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S5094 | 2016.02.08 | N18W29 | |||||||||
| 12499 |
2016.02.10 2016.02.12 |
4 | N11E24 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N11E41 | |||
| S5098 | 2016.02.10 | N22E15 | |||||||||
| S5100 | 2016.02.11 | 3 | N06E50 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S5101 | 2016.02.11 | S24W09 | |||||||||
| S5102 | 2016.02.12 | N25E24 |
 |
||||||||
| S5103 | 2016.02.12 | S34W26 |
 |
||||||||
| 12500 | 2016.02.13 | 3 | 10 | 6 | S18W29 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
beta-gamma | |
| S5105 | 2016.02.13 | 1 | 1 | S11E45 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S5106 | 2016.02.13 | 6 | 2 | N08E42 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S5107 | 2016.02.13 | 2 | S08W15 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 26 | 86 | 37 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 46 | 176 | 97 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 31 | 99 | 50 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 51 | 97 | 82 | k * (sunspot number) As of July 1, 2015: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.85 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
|||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 (+1.2) | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 112.9 | 92.2 (-2.5) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 93.0 | 89.3 (-2.9) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 66.7 | 86.1 (-3.2) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 54.5 | 82.2 (-3.9) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 75.3 | 78.8 (-3.4) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 88.8 | 76.0 (-2.8) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | 122.3 | 126.1 | 66.5 | 72.0 (-4.0) | 13.15 |
| 2015.07 | 107.0 | 110.8 | 66.4 | 68.2 (-3.8) | 8.83 |
| 2015.08 | 105.4 | 108.0 | 64.6 | (66.1 projected, -2.1) | 14.58 |
| 2015.09 | 101.7 | 102.7 | 78.1 | (66.1 projected, +0.0) | 15.78 |
| 2015.10 | 104.1 | 103.3 | 61.7 | (65.7 projected, -0.4) | 14.02 |
| 2015.11 | 109.3 | 106.9 | 63.2 | (63.6 projected, -2.1) | 12.09 |
| 2015.12 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 57.7 | (61.9 projected, -1.7) | 14.29 |
| 2016.01 | 103.4 | 100.1 | 56.6 | (60.2 projected, -1.7) | 9.4 |
| 2016.02 | 113.2 | 33.4 (2A) / 74.5 (2B) / 90.7 (2C) | (57.8 projected, -2.4) | (7.8) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
