The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 1. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed and temperature increased slowly after 16h UT at DSCOVR and another disturbance started. The source of the disturbance is uncertain, solar wind parameters suggest a coronal hole source.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 97.7 - increasing 16.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 80.74). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.1). Three hour interval K indices: 23121133 (planetary), 23221233 (Boulder), 43211233 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 125) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 96) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12887 [S25W64] was
quiet and stable. Note that SWPC includes AR S7142 in this region.
Region 12888 [S13W37] was quiet and stable.
Region 12891 [N16E02] decayed slightly and could produce M class
flares. The region was the source of a bright M1.7 long duration event
peaking at 03:00 UT on November 2. This flare was associated with a full
halo CME.
Region 12892 [N27W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12893 [N15E59] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7142
[S30W57] decayed slowly but was still capable of producing C and M flares.
Two of the flares were associated with at least partial halo CMEs, however,
given the location of the region, the CME from AR 12891 could easily catch
up with those two before they reach Earth. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 18:01 UT
S7165 [S22W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7167 [N28W09] emerged with a tiny
spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.5/1F | 01:45 | S29W45 | S7142 | GOES16 | partial halo CME, weak type II and moderate type IV radio sweeps |
| C2.1 | 20:44 | N16E11 | 12891 | GOES16 | |
| C4.0 | 21:33 | S29W62 | S7142 | GOES16 | partial halo CME |
| C4.5 | 23:40 | S7142 | GOES16 |
October 30-31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 1: Partial halo CMEs were observed after flares in AR S7142
peaking at 01:45 and 21:33 UT. The CMEs could reach Earth on November 4.
November 2: A fast full halo CME was observed after the M1.7 LDE in
AR 12891 at 03:00 UT. The flare occurred while the region was crossing the
central meridian and the CME is aimed almost directly at Earth. Active to
severe storm conditions are possible on November 4.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
An extension (CH1039) of the northern pole coronal hole rotated across the central meridian on October 31.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 2-3 and quiet to severe storm on November 4-5 due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are red colored.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12887 | 2021.10.21 2021.10.22 |
5 | 1 | 1 | S27W64 | 0160 | CSO | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S25W64 area: 0100 SWPC data includes AR S7142 |
| S7142 | 2021.10.21 | 4 | 2 | S30W57 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 12888 | 2021.10.23 2021.10.24 |
2 | 1 | S12W43 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S13W37 | ||
| 12889 | 2021.10.24 2021.10.25 |
S24W35 |
 |
location: S27W32 | |||||||
| 12891 | 2021.10.26 2021.10.26 |
17 | 33 | 19 | N16E03 | 0230 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta |
| S7157 | 2021.10.26 | S23W51 | |||||||||
| S7159 | 2021.10.28 | N24W03 | |||||||||
| 12892 | 2021.10.29 2021.10.30 |
2 | 1 | N26W43 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7162 | 2021.10.29 | S19W24 | |||||||||
| S7163 | 2021.10.29 | S04W47 | |||||||||
| 12893 | 2021.10.30 2021.10.31 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N15E57 | 0180 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| S7165 | 2021.10.30 | 1 | S22W13 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7166 | 2021.10.31 | N23W34 |
 |
||||||||
| S7167 | 2021.11.01 | 1 | 1 | N28W09 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 23 | 45 | 26 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 53 | 125 | 96 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 38 | 60 | 41 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 58 | 69 | 77 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.05 | 69.0 | 70.6 | 0.2 | 5.6 (+2.0) | 3.80 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | (26.6 projected, +1.7) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | (29.8 projected, +3.2) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (34.4 projected, +4.6) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (39.1 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (44.8 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (49.1 projected, +4.3) | 7.3 |
| 2021.11 | 97.7 (1) | 1.8 (2A) / 53 (2B) / 47.1 (2C) | (53.7 projected, +4.6) | (8.1) | |
| 2021.12 | (59.6 projected, +5.9) | ||||
| 2022.01 | (63.2 projected, +3.6) | ||||
| 2022.02 | (67.9 projected, +4.7) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (73.4 projected, +5.5) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (78.5 projected, +5.1) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
