Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 18, 2022 at 09:00 UT

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on April 17, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1073 early in the day. After noon a high speed stream from CH1074 became the dominant solar wind source. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 135 - increasing 37.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 92.14). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.0). Three hour interval K indices: 33222322 (planetary), 24223322 (Boulder), 53223333 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 151) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 106) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12987 [S29W73] developed further with a magnetic delta forming within a central penumbra. Note that SWPC has this as AR 12992, however, this faulty region numbering is the result of inaccurate coordinate tracking of AR 12987. Further M class flares are possible as the region rotates over the southwest limb.
Region 12990 [N16W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 12991 [S24E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20E62] was active early in the day and became mostly quiet after the M1.8 flare. Further M class flares are likely. The region measures 20 degrees in longitudinal extension.
Region 12994 [N13E67] is a complex region with a significant magnetic delta in the largest trailing spot. Further major flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7496 [S25E01] was quiet and stable.
S7504 [N19W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7505 [S15E58] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage region.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.9 00:37   12993 GOES16  
C3.1 01:36   12993 GOES16  
C4.9 01:57   12993 GOES16  
M1.8 02:11   12993 GOES16  
X1.1 03:34 N13E80 12994 GOES16 CME, LDE, moderate type II radio sweep
C5.4 06:16   12993 GOES16  
C3.9 09:40   12994 GOES16  
C7.7 16:08   12987 GOES16 CME
C2.1 16:52   12993 GOES16  
C6.2 18:04 S32W68 12987 GOES16  
M1.5 20:02 S31W70 12987 GOES16  
C2.7 21:01   12994 GOES16  
C3.2 21:19   12987 GOES16  
M4.4 22:34   12987 GOES16 weak type II radio sweep

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1074) was Earth facing on April 14-15. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1075) will likely rotate across the central meridian on April 20-21.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on April 18 due to a high speed stream from CH1074 becoming quiet on April 19-20.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12987 2022.04.04
2022.04.07
  11 6 S31W87 0150   DAC location: S29W73

beta-delta

12992 2022.04.16 5     S31W76 0110 DAO       the spots are at the location of AR 12987
12988 2022.04.10
2022.04.11
      N14W31          

location: N15W28

S7488 2022.04.10       S13W25            
12989 2022.04.12
2022.04.12
      N18E06          
12991 2022.04.13
2022.04.14
1 5 2 S24E26 0050 HAX HAX  
12990 2022.04.13 5 11 5 N16W07 0060 DAO DRI  
S7494 2022.04.14       S15W44            
S7495 2022.04.14       N05E04            
S7496 2022.04.14   3   S25E01 0003   BXO  
S7497 2022.04.15       S12W40            
S7498 2022.04.15       N24W48            
12993 2022.04.16
2022.04.16
8 18 10 N21E61 0400 DHO FHI

location: N20E62

12994 2022.04.16
2022.04.16
5 17 10 N13E66 0350 EHO EHC area: 0670

beta-delta

S7502 2022.04.16       S22E25          
S7503 2022.04.16       S29W14          
S7504 2022.04.16   1 1 N19W17 0004   AXX  
S7505 2022.04.17   5 2 S15E58 0010   BXO    
Total spot count: 24 71 36  
Sunspot number: 74 151 106  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 59 104 69  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 81 83 85  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (44.9 projected, +4.9) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (50.5 projected, +5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (56.4 projected, +5.9) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.0 projected, +3.6) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (64.8 projected, +4.8) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.3 (70.2 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 117.0 (1)   34.4 (2A) / 60.8 (2B) / 85.6 (2C) (75.4 projected, +5.2) (13.9)
2022.05       (81.8 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (87.7 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (94.9 projected, +7.2)  
2022.08       (101.6 projected, +6.7)  
2022.09       (106.6 projected, +5.0)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.