Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 8, 2022 at 08:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 7. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 127.2 - increasing 27.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 85.06). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22121222 (planetary), 11131221 (Boulder), 42111345 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 192) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 133) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12939 [S16W32] gained small spots and produced several B and small C flares. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 02:31 UT.
Region 12940 [N17W32] decayed significantly after noon and was quiet.
Region 12941 [N24E27] gained small spots and produced a C flare. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 19:36, C1.2 @ 23:06 UT.
Region 12942 [S12W73] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7328 [S24W32] developed slowly and quietly.
S7339 [N12W10] was quiet and stable.
S7343 [S18E62] developed slowly in the northern section.

AR 12936 behind the northwest limb. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 00:26, C1.1 @ 07:28, C1.6 @ 08:24 (wrongly attributed to AR 12941 by SWPC), C1.1 @ 09:03, C1.6 @ 11:21 UT.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.6 05:33 behind NW limb 12936 GOES16  
C3.8 12:39 behind NW limb 12936 GOES16  
C2.4 17:00 behind NW limb 12936 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 5, 7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 6: A faint full halo CME was observed after a C3.1 long duration event near noon in AR 12939. The region became unstable as new flux emerged to the south of the leader spot.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1059) was Earth facing on February 3-4. A very well defined recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1060) will likely rotate across the central meridian on February 9-10.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 8 due to effects from CH1059. On February 9-10 the CME observed on February 6 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12939 2022.01.29
2022.01.30
5 29 13 S16W33 0180 CSO DSI

location: S16W32

area: 0260

12940 2022.01.30
2022.01.30
19 32 20 N17W32 0140 DAO EAI  
S7327 2022.01.30       N18W44            
S7328 2022.01.30   5 2 S24W32 0010   AXX  
S7331 2022.01.31       N27W59            
12941 2022.02.02
2022.02.03
11 38 19 N25E24 0220 EAO FAI

location: N24E27

S7336 2022.02.02       S22W31           reversed polarities
S7338 2022.02.04       S22W13            
S7339 2022.02.04   4 1 N12W10 0007   AXX  
12942 2022.02.05
2022.02.06
3 5 3 S12W76 0010 BXO CRO area: 0030

location: S12W73

S7341 2022.02.05       S06W51            
S7342 2022.02.05       N00W19           probably SC24
S7343 2022.02.06   9 5 S18E62 0025   CRO  
Total spot count: 38 122 63  
Sunspot number: 78 192 133  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 53 143 84  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 86 106 106  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.1 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 (36.2 projected, +4.8) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (42.3 projected, +6.1) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.7 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (51.3 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.2 projected, +5.9) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.8 projected, +3.6) 8.9
2022.02 127.1 (1)   20.8 (2A) / 83.3 (2B) / 81.5 (2C) (65.5 projected, +4.7) (15.4)
2022.03       (71.0 projected, +5.5)  
2022.04       (76.1 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.6 projected, +6.5)  
2022.06       (88.4 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (95.7 projected, +7.3)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.