The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 15. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A high speed stream associated with CH1054 became the dominant solar wind source after noon.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 115.6 - increasing 0.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 82.69). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 20 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 19.9). Three hour interval K indices: 43223345 (planetary), 33223334 (Boulder), 55323366 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 191) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 143) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12924 [S33W81] rotated partly out of view. C1 flares: C1.3 @
18:37 UT.
Region 12925 [S34W56] was quiet and stable.
Region 12927 [S20W11] was quiet and stable.
Region 12929 [N07W17] developed quickly and has become a compact
region where most of the spots are within one big penumbra. The region has a
weak magnetic delta and could produce an M class flare.
Region 12930 [N20W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12931 [N12W53] developed early in the day, then decayed
significantly.
New region 12932 [N31E62] rotated into view early on January 14 with
SWPC numbering the region the next day. A slow decrease in activity was
observed during the day. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 07:07 (LDE), C1.1 @ 23:04, C1.6 @
23:29 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7292 [S21E19] developed with many spots emerging. The region has
minor polarity intermixing.
New region S7299 [N02E24] emerged and is an SC24 group.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C4.2 | 08:54 | 12932 | GOES16 |
January 13 and 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A filament eruption centered to the south of AR 12935
began at approximately 12:57 UT and was recorded as a C4 event. A CME was
observed mainly off the southwest limb, however there were faint extensions
all around the visible disk. While the main ejecta is not headed towards
Earth, there is a chance of a weak impact on January 17.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1054) was in an Earth facing position on January 12-14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 16-17 and quiet to unsettled on January 18 due to effects from CH1054. There is a slight chance the CME observed on January 14 could reach Earth on January 17-18 and contribute to the ongoing disturbance.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12924 | 2022.01.03 2022.01.04 |
2 | 1 | 1 | S31W93 | 0180 | ESO | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S31W81 |
| 12925 | 2022.01.04 2022.01.05 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S34W57 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| S7283 | 2022.01.07 | S18W58 | |||||||||
| 12926 | 2022.01.07 2022.01.09 |
1 | N19W93 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
rotated out of view | ||||
| 12927 | 2022.01.08 2022.01.09 |
2 | 17 | 4 | S21W13 | 0050 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0070 |
| 12931 | 2022.01.09 2022.01.13 |
5 | 12 | 7 | N13W54 | 0120 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N12W53 |
| 12928 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.12 |
S20W42 |
 |
|
|||||||
| 12930 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
7 | 15 | 10 | N21W19 | 0100 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N20W20 |
| 12929 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
14 | 24 | 17 | N08W20 | 0300 | DHI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0400 location: N07W17 reversed polarities |
| S7292 | 2022.01.13 | 20 | 8 | S21E19 | 0050 | CRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| 12932 | 2022.01.14 2022.01.15 |
8 | 9 | 4 | N32E60 | 0020 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0035 |
| S7294 | 2022.01.14 | S28E41 |
 |
||||||||
| S7295 | 2022.01.14 | S26E65 |
 |
||||||||
| S7296 | 2022.01.14 | N26W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S7297 | 2022.01.14 | N31E14 |
 |
||||||||
| S7298 | 2022.01.14 | S18E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S7299 | 2022.01.15 | 2 | 1 | N02E24 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 40 | 101 | 53 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 120 | 191 | 143 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 78 | 142 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 132 | 105 | 114 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 98.6 (1) | 24.7 (2A) / 51.0 (2B) / 87.7 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (7.3) | |
| 2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
