Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 17, 2022 at 09:35 UT

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (January 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (January 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (January 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (January 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 16 due to a high speed stream associated with CH1054. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 119.4 - decreasing 3.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 82.80). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.6). Three hour interval K indices: 44222243 (planetary), 33223332 (Boulder), 43322365 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 191) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 108) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12925 [S34W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12927 [S20W24] was quiet and stable.
Region 12929 [N08W31] decayed losing area and spots. The main penumbra still has both polarity spots and an M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 17:48 UT
Region 12930 [N21W33] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 05:11 UT (LDE).
Region 12931 [N12W66] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12932 [N32E49] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12933 [S21E07] emerged on January 13 and was numbered 3 days later by SWPC as the region continued to develop. C flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7297 [N38E08] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7300 [N19E15] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.6 20:21 N08W29 12929 GOES16 LDE, CME

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 15-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 14: A filament eruption centered to the south of AR 12935 began at approximately 12:57 UT and was recorded as a C4 event. A CME was observed mainly off the southwest limb, however there were faint extensions all around the visible disk. While the main ejecta is not headed towards Earth, there is a chance of a weak impact on January 17.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1054) was in an Earth facing position on January 12-14.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 17 and quiet to unsettled on January 18 due to effects from CH1054. There is a slight chance the CME observed on January 14 could reach Earth on January 17-18 and contribute to the ongoing disturbance.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12925 2022.01.04
2022.01.05
1 4 2 S34W71 0040 HSX HRX area: 0020

location: S34W69

12927 2022.01.08
2022.01.09
1 7 1 S20W25 0050 HSX CSO  
12931 2022.01.09
2022.01.13
5 7 2 N13W68 0090 CSO CRO location: N12W66

area: 0030

12928 2022.01.11
2022.01.12
      S20W56          

 

12930 2022.01.11
2022.01.13
5 24 10 N20W28 0100 DSO DAI location: N21W33

area: 0140

12929 2022.01.11
2022.01.13
11 21 8 N08W30 0310 DKI DKC beta-delta

reversed polarities

12933 2022.01.13
2022.01.16
6 25 12 S21E06 0060 CSO DAI area: 0130
12932 2022.01.14
2022.01.15
4 7 3 N31E49 0010 BXO HRX area: 0020
S7294 2022.01.14       S28E28            
S7295 2022.01.14       S26E52            
S7296 2022.01.14       N26W58            
S7297 2022.01.14   2   N38E08 0003   BXO    
S7298 2022.01.14       S18W09            
S7299 2022.01.15       N02E11         SC24 group
S7300 2022.01.16   4   N19E15 0004   AXX    
Total spot count: 33 101 38  
Sunspot number: 103 191 108  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 68 133 70  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 113 105 86  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.9 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 27.8 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (31.8 projected, +4.0) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (36.5 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (42.2 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.6 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.1 (51.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 99.9 (1)   28.0 (2A) / 54.2 (2B) / 86.8 (2C) (60.6 projected, +3.6) (7.9)
2022.02       (65.4 projected, +4.8)  
2022.03       (70.8 projected, +5.4)  
2022.04       (75.9 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.3 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (88.2 projected, +5.9)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.