The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 18 due to CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A disturbance that is likely related to the January 16 CME was observed beginning in SOHO/MTOF data around 23:10 UT. Prior to this solar wind speed had been in the 570-590 km/s range, at 23:22 UT a peak of 728 km/sec was reached. Minor geomagnetic storming was observed early on January 19 due to this CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 114.5 - decreasing 25.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.00). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.0). Three hour interval K indices: 53322333 (planetary), 43422333 (Boulder), 53334555 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 112) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 72) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12927 [S20W50] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 12929 [N08W58] decayed further and was the source of a long
duration M1.5 event. Although there was a CME (with most of the ejecta
observed off the northwest limb), initial missing LASCO images make it
difficult to observe whether or not there was any Earth directed component.
C1 flares: C1.2 at 07:39 UT.
Region 12930 [N21W59] was quiet until after the M1 event in AR 12929,
the C5 flare at 19:51 UT appeared to be triggered by that M flare.
Region 12932 [N32E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12933 [S20W21] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
New region
S7301 [S14E16] emerged early in the day and decayed after noon.
New region S7302 [N22E78] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.5 | 17:44 | N09W54 | 12929 | GOES16 | LDE, CME, type II/IV radio sweeps |
| C5.7 | 19:51 | N25W54 | 12930 | GOES16 |
January 18: A CME was observed off the
northwest limb and part of the southwest limb after an M1.5 event in AR
12929 peaking at 17:44 UT. Due to missing LASCO imagery for a couple of
hours after this event, it is uncertain whether or not there were any Earth
direct components.
January 17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 16: A CME was observed mainly with ejecta towards the
northwest, however, there were faint extensions around most of the disk.
This CME had its origin in a long duration event in AR 12929 and likely
reached Earth during the first hour of January 19.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1055) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 19. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1056) could become Earth facing on January 20-21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on January 19 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on January 20-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12927 | 2022.01.08 2022.01.09 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S20W53 | 0030 | HSX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S20W50 |
| 12928 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.12 |
S20W84 |
|
||||||||
| 12930 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
6 | 8 | 6 | N21W59 | 0260 | DKO | DSO |
 |
 |
|
| 12929 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
4 | 9 | 5 | N07W58 | 0230 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
reversed polarities |
| 12933 | 2022.01.13 2022.01.16 |
8 | 15 | 9 | S22W22 | 0080 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S20W21 area: 0160 |
| 12932 | 2022.01.14 2022.01.15 |
5 | 1 | N32E20 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N32E23 | ||
| S7294 | 2022.01.14 | S28E02 | |||||||||
| S7295 | 2022.01.14 | S26E26 | |||||||||
| S7297 | 2022.01.14 | N32W27 |
 |
||||||||
| S7298 | 2022.01.14 | S18W35 | |||||||||
| S7299 | 2022.01.15 | N02W15 | SC24 group | ||||||||
| S7300 | 2022.01.16 | N18W09 |
 |
||||||||
| S7301 | 2022.01.18 | 1 | S14E16 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7302 | 2022.01.18 | 1 | N22E78 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 42 | 22 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 59 | 112 | 72 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 44 | 60 | 40 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 65 | 62 | 58 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 101.4 (1) | 33.1 (2A) / 56.9 (2B) / 81.0 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (8.0) | |
| 2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
