Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 29, 2022 at 08:20 UT

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (January 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (January 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (January 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (January 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 28 under the influence of effects from CH1057. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 113.4 - increasing 19.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.63). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 12211124 (planetary), 12322113 (Boulder), 31211126 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 167) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 93) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12934 [S25W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 12935 [N27W43] developed slowly and produced a few B flares.
Region 12936 [N17E19] developed quickly and is a large, compact region capable of producing major flares. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 02:34, C1.1 @ 02:46, C1.0 @ 04:16, C1.0 @ 08:15, C1.1 @ 17:21 UT.
Region 12937 [S19W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12938 [N19E46] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7320 [N24E17] emerged with tiny spots to the north of AR 12936.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.5 01:35 N16E37 12936 GOES16  
C2.6 08:41   12936 GOES16  
C3.1 17:35 N21E23 12936 GOES16  
C2.7 19:34 N17E22 12936 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1057) was Earth facing on January 24-25.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 29 due to effects from CH1057 and quiet on January 30-31.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S7302 2022.01.18       N20W62          
12934 2022.01.19
2022.01.20
1 5 1 S24W35 0050 HSX CSO area: 0130
12937 2022.01.20
2022.01.25
3 16 5 S19W25 0030 BXO CRO  
S7309 2022.01.21       S20W54          
S7310 2022.01.21       N23W42            
12936 2022.01.23
2022.01.25
18 61 26 N17E23 0400 DKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0680

location: N17E19

12935 2022.01.24
2022.01.24
3 11 5 N28W44 0050 CRO CRI

location: N27W45

12938 2022.01.25
2022.01.26
2 12 6 N19E48 0010 BXO BXO location: N19E46
S7319 2022.01.26       N16W28            
S7320 2022.01.28   2   N24E17 0003   AXX  

 

Total spot count: 27 107 43  
Sunspot number: 77 167 93  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 45 128 64  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 85 92 74  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.9 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 27.8 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (31.8 projected, +4.0) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (36.5 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (42.2 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.6 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.1 (51.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 101.2 (1)   49.0 (2A) / 54.3 (2B) / 60.1 (2C) (60.6 projected, +3.6) (8.7)
2022.02       (65.4 projected, +4.8)  
2022.03       (70.8 projected, +5.4)  
2022.04       (75.9 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.3 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (88.2 projected, +5.9)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.