Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 11, 2022 at 08:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 326 and 401 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 153.0 - increasing 21.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 103.79). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.8). Three hour interval K indices: 01322111 (planetary), 11323221 (Boulder), 21233332 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 262) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 177) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13046 [N17W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13051 [N28W48] decayed slowly producing a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 04:39, C1.6 @ 04:54 UT
Region 13052 [N15W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13053 [N14E05] decayed slowly losing area. M class flaring is still possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:24 UT
Region 13055 [S17E19] developed further with a big gain in area and has become capable of producing a major flare. Weak polarity intermixing is present and there may be a weak magnetic delta in a trailing penumbra. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 03:23, C1.0 @ 07:06, C1.1 @ 07:36 UT
New region 13056 [S17E67] rotated into view on July 9 and developed on July 10 when the region was numbered by SWPC. There is significant polarity intermixing and the largest penumbra has a magnetic delta. Further M class flaring is likely. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 19:12, C1.8 @ 21:13 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S17W03] was quiet and stable.
S7694 [S10W72] developed slowly and quietly.
S7695 [N20E21] was quiet and stable.
New region S7696 [N16E82] began to rotate into view before noon and has several large spots. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:17 UT

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.9 09:24 N28W36 13051 GOES16  
C2.5 11:53 S19E73 13056 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13055
C2.0 12:30   13056 GOES16  
C2.4 12:56   13056 GOES16  
C2.8/1F 13:29 S19E72 13056 GOES16  
C4.1/1F 14:03 S19E70 13056 GOES16  
C2.0 14:41   13056 GOES16  
C2.7 15:13   13056 GOES16  
C2.3 17:10   13053 GOES16  
C2.5 17:21   13056 GOES16  
C2.6 17:53 S19E68 13056 GOES16  
C4.2 18:11   13056 GOES16  
C2.0 19:30   13056 GOES16  
C2.0 20:26   13056 GOES16  
C2.2 20:45   13056 GOES16  
C2.0 21:25   13056 GOES16  
C2.9 22:02   13056 GOES16  
C3.4 22:16   13056 GOES16  
M1.3 23:43   13056 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 9-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 8: A faint, asymmetric full halo was observed in LASCO imagery after the M2.5 LDE in AR 13053 peaking at 20:49 UT. The CME could reach Earth on July 12.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small, poorly defined northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1087) was in an Earth facing position on July 9-10.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on July 11. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on July 12 due to CME effects and quiet to unsettled on July 13-14 due to effects from CH1087.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13046 2022.06.30
2022.07.01
2 2 1 N18W56 0030 HRX HRX

area: 0020

13048 2022.07.01
2022.07.02
      S13W76            
13049 2022.07.01
2022.07.03
      S12W49         location: S12W31
13051 2022.07.02
2022.07.04
5 7 3 N28W50 0060 CRO CAO

location: N28W48

13050 2022.07.02
2022.07.04
      N18W54            
13052 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
1 4 2 N15W15 0020 HAX CRO  
13053 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
18 60 35 N15E07 0420 EKI EKI beta-gamma

location: N14E19

S7680 2022.07.04       S32W56            
13054 2022.07.05
2022.07.06
      N21W82            
S7685 2022.07.05       S13E02            
S7686 2022.07.05       S22W51          
13055 2022.07.06
2022.07.07
22 46 27 S17E20 0630 EKC EKC area: 0980

location: S17E19

S7688 2022.07.07       N17W31            
S7689 2022.07.07       N21W41            
S7690 2022.07.07   7   S17W03 0012   AXX  
S7691 2022.07.08       N18E35          
S7692 2022.07.09       N45W03          
13056 2022.07.09
2022.07.10
5 17 10 S15E65 0060 CRO DAC beta-delta

area: 0100

location: S17E67

S7694 2022.07.09   6 4 S10W72 0015   BXO  
S7695 2022.07.09   9 3 N20E21 0015   BXO  
S7696 2022.07.10   4 2 N16E82 0360   DKO    
Total spot count: 53 162 87  
Sunspot number: 113 262 177  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 87 208 133  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 124 144 142  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 117.0 (1)   25.1 (2A) / 77.8 (2B) / 109.7 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (10.3)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.