Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 17, 2022 at 09:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 367 and 597 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 176.2 - increasing 32.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 105.40). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 22321011 (planetary), 13322211 (Boulder), 34431012 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 315) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 190) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13053 [N14W76] decayed significantly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 13:11 UT
Region 13055 [S16W62] decayed slowly producing 1 M class flare. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 12:03 UT
Region 13056 [S17W13] decayed in the eastern spot section while development was observed in the northern spot section. Occasional C class flaring is likely.
Region 13057 [N16E03] was the source of a small M class flare. Further M class flares are possible.
Region 13058 [N14E53] has a magnetic delta at the center of the region. An M class flare is possible.
Region 13059 [S08E55] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13060 [N12E49] rotated into view on July 14 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7699 [N22W41] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7707 [S16E29] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7708 [N23W25] emerged before noon and developed slowly all day.

A large filament eruption to the south of AR 13055 appeared to have been triggered by the M1 flare in that region and the filament lifted off after 17h UT. A CME was associated with the filament eruption.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.2 02:48 S19E00 13056 GOES16  
C2.3 04:28   13058 GOES16  
C2.5 05:07 S19E00 13056 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13058
M1.1/1N 06:29 N18E20 13057 GOES16  
C2.0 08:01   13055 GOES16  
C2.0 10:00   13058 GOES16  
C2.0 10:45   13056 GOES16  
C2.9 13:38   13053 GOES16 wrongly attributed to AR 13059 by SWPC
C2.0 14:22   13056 GOES16  
M1.4/1B 15:39 S17W53 13055 GOES16  
C4.0 16:43   13053 GOES16  
C3.0 20:31   13056 GOES16  
C2.0 22:22   13055 GOES16  
C2.2 22:32   13055 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 14, 16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 15: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere after noon. The CME could reach Earth on July 19.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1088) rotated across the central meridian on July 15. A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) will become Earth facing on July 18-20.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on July 15-17.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnigh4t Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13053 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
5 10 5 N15W77 0110 CAI CSO

area: 0090

location: N14W76

13055 2022.07.06
2022.07.07
15 25 12 S16W52 0590 EKI EKI

location: S16W62

S7691 2022.07.08       N18W43            
13056 2022.07.09
2022.07.10
31 71 35 S17W16 0200 EAI EAI

beta-gamma

location: S17W13

S7695 2022.07.09       N17W55          
13057 2022.07.10
2022.07.11
16 43 21 N16E04 0320 EHI EHI

location: N16E03

S7697 2022.07.11       S28W48          
S7698 2022.07.11       S15W35            
S7699 2022.07.11   1   N22W41 0002   AXX    
13058 2022.07.13
2022.07.14
9 37 13 N16E38 0060 DAI DSC beta-gamma-delta

location: N15E40

S7701 2022.07.13       N20W20          
13059 2022.07.14
2022.07.15
5 10 5 S10E55 0180 DSO DSO location: S08E55
13060 2022.07.14
2022.07.16
2 5 3 N13E58 0050 HSX CSO location: N12E49
S7704 2022.07.15       N33W02          
S7705 2022.07.15       N18E47          
S7706 2022.07.15       S06E18          
S7707 2022.07.16   2 2 S16E29 0010   BXO    
S7708 2022.07.16   11 4 N23W25 0030   CRO    
Total spot count: 83 215 100  
Sunspot number: 153 315 190  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 128 263 148  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 168 173 152  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 136.1 (1)   50.2 (2A) / 97.3 (2B) / 109.5 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (9.4)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.