|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]|
|Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022)||Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)|
|Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing||Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on July 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 358 and 483 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed stream from CH1089 gradually became the dominant solar wind source after 04 UT and was the source of the geomagnetic disturbance during the latter half of the day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 121.7 - increasing 6.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 106.22). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 19 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 19.4). Three hour interval K indices: 21133553 (planetary), 21243544 (Boulder), 31133455 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 206) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 147) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13057 [N17W64] decayed slowly producing
a few C flares. C1 flare: C1.3 @ 19:58 UT
Region 13058 [N14W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13059 [S08W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13060 [N11W20] gained negative polarity spots ahead of the positive polarity leader spot.
Region 13062 [S25E50] was quiet and stable.
Region 13063 [N11W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13064 [N08E17] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.5 @ 15:22, C1.6 @ 22:23 UT
New region 13065 [S19E15] emerged with a few spots.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7712 [N28E13] was quiet and stable.
S7713 [N17W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7718 [S16E30] was quiet and stable.
AR 13056 was the source of the following C1 flares: C1.6 @ 05:06, C1.3 @ 06:15, C1.5 @ 08:51 UT
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||Source||Recorded by||Comment|
|C5.6||01:11||N14W01||13060||GOES16||halo CME, moderate type II and weak IV radio sweeps|
|C3.1||11:49||southwest limb||13056||GOES16||SWPC incorrectly attributed this to AR 13064. There was a simultaneous, smaller event in that AR.|
July 21: A faint halo CME was observed after a C5.6 flare near center disk
in AR 13060. The CME could reach Earth on July 23.
July 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 18: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the southern hemisphere after 20h UT. The filament eruption triggered activity in AR 13056 and a partial halo CME was observed late in the day. While the bulk of the CME is not headed towards Earth, there is a chance of weak effects on July 22.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) was Earth facing on July 18-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active conditions are possible on July 22 due to effects from CH1089 and possibly from the July 18 CME. Quiet to major storm conditions are possible on July 23-24 if the July 21 CME reaches Earth.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
|Active region||SWPC date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnigh4t||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
rotated out of view
|3||4||3||S19E15||0010||BXO||CRO||was AR S7721|
|Total spot count:||34||96||47|
|Sunspot number:||124||206||147||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||60||125||76||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||136||113||118|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average ap
|166.3||146.1 (SC24 peak)||110.5||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (solar max)||7.88|
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
|2022.01||103.8||100.5||54.0||(59.5 projected, +3.8)||8.92|
|2022.02||109.1||106.5||59.7||(65.1 projected, +5.6)||10.46|
|2022.03||117.0||115.8||78.5||(70.5 projected, +5.4)||10.20|
|2022.04||130.8||131.7||84.1||(75.7 projected, +5.2)||11.79|
|2022.05||133.8||136.8||96.5||(82.2 projected, +6.5)||7.48|
|2022.06||116.1||119.8||70.6||(88.1 projected, +5.9)||8.20|
|2022.07||137.4 (1)||71.5 (2A) / 105.5 (2B) / 107.0 (2C)||(95.3 projected, +7.2)||(10.1)|
|2022.08||(101.9 projected, +6.6)|
|2022.09||(106.9 projected, +5.0)|
|2022.10||(110.1 projected, +3.2)|
|2022.11||(112.9 projected, +2.8)|
|2022.12||(117.7 projected, +4.8)|
|2023.11||(141.4 projected max SC25)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.