The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on June 13 under the influence of coronal hole effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 131.5 - decreasing 39.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 100.83). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.5). Three hour interval K indices: 45222232 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 46223333 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 294) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 174) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13029 [S23W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR
S7622.
Region 13030 [N19E23] decayed early in the day,
then developed slowly as new flux emerged in the central parts. C1 flare:
C1.1 @ 23:32 UT
Region 13031 [S28E10] decayed slowly before noon, then developed
quickly as new flux emerged in the southeastern part of the region. C and M
class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 16:51, C1.4 @ 18:37, C1.3 @
20:35 UT
Region 13032 [N20E32] decayed slowly after the M3 flare, however,
further M class flares may be possible
Region 13033 [N16E53] gained spots and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.6 @ 01:28, C1.2 @ 17:42 UT
New region 13034 [N01E68] rotated into view on June 12 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day. The region decayed slightly in the trailing
spot section and was quiet. This is likely an SC24 group.
New region 13035 [S18E67] rotated into view on June 12 and was
numbered by SWPC the next day. The region was quiet.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7623 [S21W01] was quiet and stable.
S7628 [S16E09] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18E08] was quiet and stable.
S7636 [S13W41] gained spots and area and could produce C flares.
S7637 [N17W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S7640 [N22E43] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7641 [S19E32] was observed with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
M3.4/1N | 04:07 | N22E45 | 13032 | GOES16 | wide flare center, LDE, CME, moderate type II and weak type IV radio sweep |
C2.0 | 10:57 | 13033 | GOES16 | ||
C8.5 | 21:24 | 13031 | GOES16 | impulsive |
June 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 13: The M3.4 LDE in
AR 13032 peaking at 04:07 UT was associated with a very dense CME core off
the east limbs. Faint component of the CME were observed over most of the
western limbs. The core of the CME will probably not reach Earth, but if it
does it will likely be early on June 15 and could cause severe geomagnetic
storming. The faint shock associated with the CME is more likely to reach
Earth and, provided that the CME core doesn't reach Earth, could cause
unsettled to minor storm intervals on June 15-16.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing position on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) will likely rotate across the central meridian on June 15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet conditions are expected most of June 14. Late in the day or early on June 15 a high speed stream from CH1081 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A solar wind shock associated with the June 13 LDE could reach Earth on June 15 with a possibility for active to minor storm conditions (severe storm is possible should the CME core reach us) that day and on June 16.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
13029 | 2022.06.03 2022.06.04 |
3 | S17W67 | 0003 | BXO |
location: S21W49 Note that SWPC has moved the location of this group to that of AR S7622 |
|||||
13028 | 2022.06.04 2022.06.04 |
N14W74 | location: N14W54 | ||||||||
S7622 | 2022.06.08 | S18W65 | |||||||||
S7623 | 2022.06.08 | 12 | 5 | S21W01 | 0030 | BXO | |||||
13030 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.10 |
5 | 17 | 11 | N20E21 | 0040 | DAO | ERI |
area: 0080 location: N19E23 |
||
S7625 | 2022.06.09 | N19W53 | |||||||||
13032 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.12 |
9 | 28 | 13 | N21E33 | 0180 | DAI | DAO |
area: 0140 location: N20E32 beta-gamma |
||
S7627 | 2022.06.09 | N19W38 | |||||||||
S7628 | 2022.06.10 | 11 | S16E09 | 0015 | BXO | ||||||
S7629 | 2022.06.10 | 6 | 3 | N18E08 | 0012 | AXX | |||||
13031 | 2022.06.10 2022.06.11 |
10 | 34 | 20 | S27E09 | 0020 | CRO | DAI |
location: S28E10 area: 0120 |
||
13033 | 2022.06.11 2022.06.12 |
7 | 18 | 9 | N17E52 | 0050 | DSO | DRI | location: N16E53 | ||
S7632 | 2022.06.11 | N17W29 | |||||||||
S7633 | 2022.06.11 | S38W55 | |||||||||
13034 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
3 | 3 | 3 | N01E69 | 0110 | DSO | CSO |
area: 0150 likely SC24 group |
||
13035 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
2 | 6 | 3 | S18E68 | 0080 | DSO | CAO | |||
S7636 | 2022.06.12 | 10 | 5 | S13W41 | 0040 | DRI | |||||
S7637 | 2022.06.12 | 2 | N17W12 | 0002 | BXO | ||||||
S7638 | 2022.06.12 | S13W24 | |||||||||
S7639 | 2022.06.12 | N11W22 | |||||||||
S7640 | 2022.06.13 | 3 | 2 | N22E43 | 0010 | CRO | |||||
S7641 | 2022.06.13 | 1 | S19E32| | 0001 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 36 | 154 | 74 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 96 | 294 | 174 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 64 | 186 | 106 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 106 | 162 | 139 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.7 projected, +5.1) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.4 projected, +4.7) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (66.9 projected, +6.5) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (72.4 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (77.6 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (84.1 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
2022.06 | 106.3 (1) | 20.7 (2A) / 47.7 (2B) / 96.9 (2C) | (89.9 projected, +5.8) | (5.9) | |
2022.07 | (97.2 projected, +7.3) | ||||
2022.08 | (103.8 projected, +6.6) | ||||
2022.09 | (108.8 projected, +5.0) | ||||
2022.10 | (112.0 projected, +3.2) | ||||
2022.11 | (114.8 projected, +2.8) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.