Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 6, 2022 at 10:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on March 5 due to effects from CH1067. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 120.1 - decreasing 3.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 87.16). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 27 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 27.4). Three hour interval K indices: 42245455 (planetary), 31345434 (Boulder), 62224556 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 195) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 138) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12957 [S13W28] decayed slowly and quietly. This is the original NOAA AR number. On March 3 SWPC split what they had previously considered as one region and assigned 12961 to this region. To preserve data consistency and integrity the original numbering is kept.
Region 12958 [N17W15] developed slowly as new flux emerged.
Region 12959 [S18E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12960 [S20E43] gained area as the large leader spot expanded. C and M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 22:07 UT
New region 12962 [N27E55] emerged with tiny spots in an old plage area. There's polarity intermixing near the center of the region. C and M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 18:36, C1.0 @ 22:07 UT. The latter flare was incorrectly attributed to AR 12960 by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S17W14] lost a few spots, however a weak magnetic delta formed and a minor M class flare is possible.
S7398 [S24W14] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 15:22 UT.
New region S7405 [S17E12] emerged with a small spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.7 20:22   12962 GOES16 LDE

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1067) was in an Earth facing position on March 1-4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 6-7 due to effects from CH1067 and quiet on March 8-9.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12955 2022.02.20
2022.02.21
1     N14W89 0060 HSX     rotated out of view
12956 2022.02.25
2022.02.27
      N25W65          

location: N28W58

12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
14 16 6 S16W18 0240 DAI CRO location: S13W28

area: 0030

Originally AR 12957. SWPC has renumbered the region as AR 12961

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
3 8 4 N17W15 0020 BXO CRO

 

S7393 2022.02.27   37 25 S17W14 0290   DAI beta-gamma-delta

SWPC has this as AR 12957

12961 2022.03.03 7     S14W29 0030 CRO       this is originally AR 12957
S7395 2022.02.28       S12W36            
S7397 2022.03.01       N05W44           likely SC24 group
S7398 2022.03.01   4 2 S24W14 0010   AXX  
12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
  1 1 S19W05 0003   AXX

location: S18E01

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
8 31 16 S20E45 0450 DKI EHI area: 0570

location: S20E43

S7402 2022.03.03       S25E03            
S7403 2022.03.04       N11E03          
S7404 2022.03.05       N13E18          
S7405 2022.03.05   2 1 S17E12 0007   HRX    
12962 2022.03.05 2 16 3 N26E55 0030 BXO DRI   was AR S7406
Total spot count: 35 115 58  
Sunspot number: 95 195 138  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 58 142 85  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 105 108 110  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 110.6 (1)   12.6 (2A) / 78.4 (2B) / 78.8 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (10.6)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.