Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 10, 2022 at 12:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 9. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 114.8 - decreasing 3.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 87.58). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 31111102 (planetary), 21112211 (Boulder), 51001105 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 223) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 129) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12960 [S20W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12962 [N26E05] was quiet and stable.
Region 12963 [S19W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12964 [S27W40] developed slowly and quietly. The region has reversed polarities.
Region 12965 [N22E61] rotated fully into view and is a region with M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 07:56, C1.0 @ 12:49 UT
New region 12966 [S24W48] emerged on March 8 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S17W66] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7413 [S31W55] was quiet and stable.
New region S7414 [S32E16] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7415 [S31W28] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7416 [N13W49] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 10-12.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
1     S16W66 0100 HSX       location: S12W81

spotless

Originally AR 12957. SWPC has renumbered the region as AR 12961

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
      N17W69          

location: N18W58

S7393 2022.02.27   1 1 S17W66 0070   HSX

SWPC has this as AR 12957

12961 2022.03.03       S13W81           this is originally AR 12957
12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
      S19W59          

 

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
7 25 9 S20W05 0400 EHO EKO

location: S20W09

S7402 2022.03.03       S25W49            
S7403 2022.03.04       N11W49            
S7404 2022.03.05       N13W34            
12963 2022.03.05
2022.03.07
  7 2 S18W39 0010   BXO  
12962 2022.03.05 1 19 4 N27E05 0010 AXX BXO location: N28E05
S7407 2022.03.06       N09W24            
12964 2022.03.06
2022.03.07
5 17 11 S19W41 0070 DSO DAI reversed polarities

SWPC has wrong location, apparently from AR 12963

S7409 2022.03.06       N19E05          
12965 2022.03.08 11 23 12 N23E60 0330 EKI FKI area: 0470
S7411 2022.03.08       S27E02          
12966 2022.03.08
2022.03.09
4 15 9 S23W48 0010 BXO DRI area: 0050

location: S24W48

S7413 2022.03.08   1 1 S31W55 0005   HRX  
S7414 2022.03.09   2   S32E16 0002   BXO    
S7415 2022.03.09   1   S31W28 0001   AXX    
S7416 2022.03.09   2   N13W49 0003   BXO    
Total spot count: 29 113 49  
Sunspot number: 89 223 129  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 59 149 85  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 98 123 103  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 113.0 (1)   23.9 (2A) / 83.2 (2B) / 78.5 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (9.8)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.