Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 11, 2022 at 08:20 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 10. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A disturbance was observed beginning at DSCOVR at 16:39 UT.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 127.1 - increasing 14.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 87.71). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.0). Three hour interval K indices: 21111242 (planetary), 22232332 (Boulder), 41014554 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 230) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 146) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12960 [S19W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12962 [N27W10] was mostly quiet and stable. The region was the source of a very long duration C2.8 event peaking at 20:32 UT. The event began at 18:10 UT and ended at 06:20 UT on March 11 when background levels were reached. A nearly symmetrical full halo CME was observed beginning from 19:12 UT in LASCO imagery. Most of the ejecta were observed to the north and it is uncertain whether Earth is within the path of the CME core.
Region 12964 [S27W56] gained area and produced a single C flare. The region has reversed polarities.
Region 12965 [N22E48] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12966 [S23W62] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S17W79] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7417 [S19E26] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7418 [S18E69] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7419 [S21E83] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7420 [S16W11] emerged with a tiny spot.

An active region (S7421) is rotating into view at the northeast limb early on March 11, this region produced a C2 flare just before midnight.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.8 20:32 N27W07 12962 GOES16 LDE, full halo CME
C3.1 20:56 S27W53 12964 GOES16  
C2.6 23:43 N16E90 S7421 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 8-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
March 10: A full halo CME was observed after the very long duration event in AR 12962. The CME could reach Earth on March 13 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1068) will likely rotate across the central meridian on March 11.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 11 and quiet to unsettled on March 12 and initially on March 13. Late on March 13 the March 10 CME could arrive and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
1     S16W79 0090 HSX       location: S12W94

spotless

The original AR 12957 has rotated out of view.

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
      N17W82          

location: N18W71

S7393 2022.02.27   1 1 S17W79 0050   HSX

SWPC has this as AR 12957

12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
      S19W72          

 

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
5 25 16 S20W18 0390 EHO DHO

location: S19W22

S7404 2022.03.05       N13W47            
12963 2022.03.05
2022.03.07
      S18W52          
12962 2022.03.05 1 19 6 N27W08 0010 AXX CRO location: N27W10
S7407 2022.03.06       N09W37            
12964 2022.03.06
2022.03.07
5 26 9 S28W54 0070 DSO DAI reversed polarities

area: 0180

location: S27W56

S7409 2022.03.06       N19W08            
12965 2022.03.08 14 42 16 N23E47 0600 EKI FAI  
S7411 2022.03.08       S27W11            
12966 2022.03.08
2022.03.09
4 9 4 S23W61 0010 BXO DRI area: 0025

location: S24W62

S7414 2022.03.09       S32E03          
S7415 2022.03.09       S31W41          
S7417 2022.03.10   3 2 S19E26 0006   AXX    
S7418 2022.03.10   3 1 S18E69 0006   BXO    
S7419 2022.03.10   1   S21E83 0001   AXX    
S7420 2022.03.10   1 1 S16W11 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 30 130 56  
Sunspot number: 90 230 146  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 80 161 87  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 99 127 117  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 114.4 (1)   26.8 (2A) / 83.0 (2B) / 81.0 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (9.6)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.