The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 13. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 149.5 - increasing 27.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 96.41). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.5). Three hour interval K indices: 21112123 (planetary), 21222423 (Boulder), 32122244 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 245) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 159) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13006 [S30W47] decayed losing many small
spots and was mostly inactive.
Region 13007 [S22E07] is slowly becoming better organized. Area
increased while some small spots disappeared. The magnetic delta disappeared
as well and only small C flares were produced. The region has M class flare
potential. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 07:42
UT
Region 13008 [N17E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13009 [N16W50] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S14E64] was mostly quiet and
stable. C1 flares: C1.7 at 06:10 UT
New region 13011 [N18E61] rotated into view on May 12 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 13012 [S17W04] saw new flux emerge on May 12 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day as the region began to decay.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7559 [S28E43] was quiet and stable.
New region S7568 [N15E28] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S7569 [N13E79] rotated into view
with several spots. The region produced several C flares and may be capable
of M class flaring.
New region S7570 [N22E81] rotated into view with tiny spots.
A region (maybe AR S7570) at or behind the northeast limb produced a C1.9 flare at 03:18, a C1.9 flare at 07:18, a C1.6 flare at 12:19, a C1.8 flare at 13:57 and a C1.7 flare at 14:59 UT.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 01:04 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:23 | 13007 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 04:56 | S22E15 | 13007 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 08:58 | S20E16 | 13007 | GOES16 | |
| C2.7 | 09:45 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2 | 10:09 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 10:56 | 13007 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 11:18 | 13007 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 16:24 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 18:01 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 18:35 | S7569 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 22:26 | S7569 | GOES16 |
May 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1078) will rotate across the central meridian on May 13-14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on May 14. Unsettled to minor storm conditions are possible on May 15-16 due to effects from CH1078.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13006 | 2022.05.02 2022.05.04 |
18 | 27 | 15 | S31W46 | 0120 | EAO | CRI |
 |
 |
location: S30W47 area: 0070 |
| S7551 | 2022.05.06 | N34W48 | |||||||||
| 13007 | 2022.05.07 2022.05.08 |
28 | 54 | 37 | S24E05 | 0330 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
area: 0500 location: S22E07 |
| S7555 | 2022.05.08 | N02W33 | likely SC24 group | ||||||||
| S7556 | 2022.05.09 | N19W49 | |||||||||
| 13012 | 2022.05.09 2022.05.13 |
2 | 2 | 1 | S19E01 | 0010 | BXO | HRX |
 |
 |
location: S17W04 |
| 13008 | 2022.05.10 2022.05.11 |
4 | 10 | 5 | N16E08 | 0030 | CAO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 |
| S7559 | 2022.05.11 | 5 | 3 | S28E43 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13009 | 2022.05.11 2022.05.11 |
2 | N14W48 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N16W50 |
|||
| S7561 | 2022.05.11 | N21W19 | |||||||||
| 13010 | 2022.05.11 2022.05.12 |
5 | 15 | 9 | S15E61 | 0090 | DSO | EAI |
 |
 |
area: 0150 location: S14E64 |
| S7564 | 2022.05.12 | S13W14 |
 |
||||||||
| 13011 | 2022.05.12 2022.05.13 |
3 | 6 | 4 | N16E66 | 0010 | CRO | ERO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N18E61 |
| S7566 | 2022.05.12 | N35W21 |
 |
||||||||
| S7567 | 2022.05.12 | N19W01 |
 |
||||||||
| S7568 | 2022.05.13 | 2 | N15E28 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7569 | 2022.05.13 | 9 | 5 | N13E79 | 0250 | DAC |
 |
||||
| S7570 | 2022.05.13 | 3 | N22E81 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 60 | 135 | 79 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 120 | 245 | 159 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 88 | 164 | 108 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 132 | 135 | 127 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.10 |
74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | (50.0 projected, +5.0) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.8 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.3 projected, +4.5) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.2 projected, +4.9) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.7 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 121.8 (1) | 31.5 (2A) / 75.0 (2B) / 95.0 (2C) | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | (4.9) | |
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
| 2022.07 | (95.4 projected, +7.2) | ||||
| 2022.08 | (102.1 projected, +6.7) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (107.1 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.3 projected, +3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
