Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 1, 2022 at 06:20 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (May 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (June 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (June 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (June 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (June 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 31 due to a high speed stream associated with CH1080. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 98.0 - decreasing 32.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 99.73). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32122231 (planetary), 43332221 (Boulder), 55234353 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 137) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 82) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13022 [S06W39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13023 [S13W13] was quiet and stable.
Region 13024 [S33W06] was quiet and stable.
Region 13025 [N28W78] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7598 [S16E18] was quiet and stable.
S7605 [N18W22] developed further, has many spots, and could soon become capable of C class flaring.
New region S7606 [N29E68] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7607 [S50E02] emerged in the afternoon at a high latitude and with reversed polarities. Initially tiny trailing spots were visible, however, only a tiny leading polarity spot was visible by the end of the day.
New region S7608 [N27E26] emerged with tiny spots.

An interesting filament eruption was observed starting near 23:50 UT close to the center of the visible disk. Most of the coronal dimming was observed to the north of the eruption site. Awaiting relevant LASCO imagery to determine if there was a potential Earth directed CME involved.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

May 29-31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on June 1 due to a high speed stream associated with CH1080, quiet conditions are likely on June 2-3.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13020 2022.05.20
2022.05.22
      S21W65            
13021 2022.05.21
2022.05.22
      N13W52            
13022 2022.05.23
2022.05.24
  2 1 S08W41 0005   AXX location: S06W39
13023 2022.05.24
2022.05.25
2 7 2 S13W14 0110 HAX CAO area: 0140
13024 2022.05.24
2022.05.25
1 1 1 S33W07 0040 HSX CSO area: 0060
13025 2022.05.27
2022.05.29
6 8 5 N27W75 0120 DAO DRO location: N28W78

area: 0080

S7596 2022.05.27       N16W25            
S7598 2022.05.29   5 2 S16E18 0008   BXO  
S7599 2022.05.29       S38W10            
S7601 2022.05.29       N10W57            
S7602 2022.05.29       N19E24            
S7603 2022.05.29       S28W24            
S7604 2022.05.30       S14E07          
S7605 2022.05.30   20 11 N18W22 0090   DRI  
S7606 2022.05.31   1   N29E68 0002   AXX    
S7607 2022.05.31   1   S50E02 0001   AXX   reversed polarities
S7608 2022.05.31   2   N27E26 0002   BXO    
Total spot count: 9 47 22  
Sunspot number: 39 137 82  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 24 63 36  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 43 75 66  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 (55.7 projected, +5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.4 projected, +4.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (66.9 projected, +6.5) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (72.4 projected, +5.5) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (77.6 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (84.1 projected, +6.5) 7.5
2022.06 (1)   (2A/2B) / 108.5 (2C) (89.9 projected, +5.8) ()
2022.07       (97.2 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (103.8 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (108.8 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (112.0 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (114.8 projected, +2.8)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.