The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 345 and 400 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 115.1 - increasing 6.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 119.94). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 20111011 (planetary), 21121211 (Boulder), 30110012 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 230) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 140) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13147 [S11E31] was quiet and stable.
Region 13148 [S32E21] was active early in the day, then settled down. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:01 UT
Region 13149 [N23E38] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13150 [N21W54] developed further producing C flares and one M
class event. Another M class flare is possible. The M1.6 flare just after
noon was associated with an EIT wave over most of the visible western
hemisphere and a partial halo CME. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 07:56, C1.1 @ 08:33,
C1.2 @ 12:39, C1.2 @ 17:11 UT.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8007 [N29W10] was quiet and stable.
S8012 [S19E08] was quiet and stable.
S8014 [S07E19] was quiet and stable.
S8015 [S26E22] was quiet and stable.
S8017 [N17W34] was quiet and stable.
New region S8020 [N20E11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8021 [N32E28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8022 [S18W29] emerged with a tiny spot.
A C1.4 flare was recorded at 01:18 UT from a source behind the northwest limb. AR S8006 was the source of a C1.1 @ 14:11 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.7 | 01:37 | 13148 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.3 | 06:23 | N21W42 | 13150 | GOES16 | |
| M1.6 | 12:56 | 13150 | GOES16 |
November 17-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 19: The M1 flare in AR 13150 was associated with a partial
halo CME. It is uncertain if Earth will be in the path of components from
this CME, any effects are likely on November 22 and 23.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large, well defined recurrent coronal hole (CH1113) in the southern hemisphere was Earth facing on November 16-19, however, CH1113 may be too far to the south to cause a geomagnetic disturbance. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1114) could rotate across the central meridian on November 21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on November 20-22 with a chance of active intervals should a high speed stream from CH1113 reach Earth.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13146 | 2022.11.12 2022.11.13 |
N32W49 |
location: N32W45 |
||||||||
| S8001 | 2022.11.12 | S28W55 | |||||||||
| S8006 | 2022.11.14 | S12W40 |
 |
||||||||
| S8007 | 2022.11.15 | 3 | N29W10 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13148 | 2022.11.15 2022.11.16 |
4 | 16 | 7 | S32E21 | 0040 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| 13147 | 2022.11.15 2022.11.16 |
4 | 21 | 11 | S11E31 | 0230 | DAO | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0290 |
| 13149 | 2022.11.16 2022.11.17 |
5 | 21 | 12 | N23E38 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0070 |
| S8012 | 2022.11.17 | 4 | 1 | S19E08 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8014 | 2022.11.17 | 4 | 1 | S07E19 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8015 | 2022.11.17 | 9 | 2 | S26E22 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13150 | 2022.11.18 2022.11.18 |
6 | 19 | 11 | N22W55 | 0140 | DSO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N21W54 |
| S8017 | 2022.11.18 | 5 | 4 | N17W34 | 0016 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8018 | 2022.11.18 | S25W05 |
 |
||||||||
| S8019 | 2022.11.18 | S17W22 |
 |
||||||||
| S8020 | 2022.11.19 | 5 | N20E11 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8021 | 2022.11.19 | 2 | N32E28 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8022 | 2022.11.19 | 1 | 1 | S18W29 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 110 | 50 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 59 | 230 | 140 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 35 | 131 | 71 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 65 | 126 | 112 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.1 (+4.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (78.5 projected, +5.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (84.4 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (91.6 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (98.2 projected, +6.6) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (103.1 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (106.3 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 130.4 (1) | 44.9 (2A) / 71.0 (2B) / 92.9 (2C) | (109.1 projected, +2.8) | (8.0) | |
| 2022.12 | (113.9 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (119.9 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (124.9 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (128.0 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (133.4 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
