The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 425 and 537 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 207.8 - decreasing 20.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 131.87). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.9). Three hour interval K indices: 43233234 (planetary), 32323333 (Boulder), 54333255(Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 396) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 268) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13209 [N20W37] developed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13213 [N31W37] gained some spots, however, the main penumbra
decreased in area and only a small magnetic delta remained in the
intermediate spot section. There is still a chance of a major flare.
Region 13214 [N12W20] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. Positive
polarity flux began to emerge in the western parts of the trailing spots. An
M class flare is possible.
Region 13215 [N22E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13216 [N25E18] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13217 [S11E48] is still compact and has a magnetic delta
structure. A major flare is possible.
Region 13218 [N11E33] was quiet and stable.
Region 13219 [S06E42] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13220 [S14E64] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13221 [N15E61] was quiet and stable.
New region 13222 [N30W68] emerged with several spots and could
produce C flares as there is some polarity intermixing.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8238 [S23W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8250 [S26W08] was quiet and stable.
S8258 [N08W66] developed and has C class flare potential. SWPC has
repositioned old AR 13208 (originally 7 degrees further north and spotless
plage) to this region.
S8260 [S13E04] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8264 [S10E57] was quiet and stable.
New region S8266 [N18E45] was observed with a tiny spot in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.4 | 00:26 | N31W23 | 13213 | GOES16 | |
| C2.6 | 01:55 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 02:13 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 02:28 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.7/2N | 03:03 | N29W25 | 13213 | GOES16 | moderate type II and weak type IV radio sweeps. CME |
| C9.3/1F | 05:46 | S10E62 | 13217 | GOES16 | |
| M1.4 | 08:05 | N31W27 | 13213 | GOES16 | |
| C5.7 | 08:52 | S10E55 | 13217 | GOES16 | |
| C5.5 | 09:06 | S12E54 | 13217 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13219 by SWPC |
| C4.1 | 10:29 | 13217 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13208 by SWPC | |
| C9.6 | 10:50 | S11E54 | 13217 | GOES16 | |
| C3.5 | 14:22 | 13214 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 14:55 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6 | 16:00 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.7 | 17:50 | 13220 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 18:44 | 13222 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 20:07 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 22:25 | N28W38 | 13213 | GOES16 | |
| M1.2/1N | 22:41 | S18E63 | 13220 | GOES16 | |
| C6.0 | 23:10 | 13217 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 00:03 | 13214 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13213 by SWPC |
February 8-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 10: A large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant
peaked near 09h UT and produced a partial halo CME. Components of this CME
could reach Earth on February 13-15.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 11-12. The February 10 CME could reach Earth on February 13 or 14 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13207 | 2023.01.29 2023.01.30 |
S13W75 |
 |
|
|||||||
| 13208 | 2023.02.01 2023.02.01 |
5 | N09W66 | 0020 | CRO |
real location: N15W63 SWPC repositioned spotless plage AR 13208 on February 9 to an emerging further further south, see AR S8258 |
|||||
| 13209 | 2023.02.01 2023.02.03 |
2 | 6 | 3 | N22W38 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N20W22 area: 0018 location: N20W37 |
| S8234 | 2023.02.01 | S29W52 | |||||||||
| S8238 | 2023.02.03 | 10 | S23W28 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13213 | 2023.02.04 2023.02.06 |
22 | 67 | 34 | N30W39 | 0450 | FKI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N31W37 |
| S8243 | 2023.02.05 | N28W54 | |||||||||
| 13214 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
11 | 31 | 17 | N11W20 | 0300 | DHO | DKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0620 |
| 13215 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
1 | 6 | 2 | N22E03 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 13216 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
3 | 12 | 6 | N24E19 | 0140 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0180 |
| S8247 | 2023.02.05 | S27W30 | |||||||||
| S8248 | 2023.02.05 | S23W51 | |||||||||
| S8250 | 2023.02.06 | 11 | 3 | S25E05 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8251 | 2023.02.06 | N09W46 | |||||||||
| S8254 | 2023.02.07 | N22W28 |
 |
||||||||
| 13218 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
2 | 8 | 3 | N11E35 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N11E33 |
| 13217 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
11 | 22 | 19 | S11E49 | 0380 | DKI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0690 |
| 13219 | 2023.02.08 2023.02.09 |
6 | 12 | 8 | S07E42 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S06E42 area: 0060 |
| S8258 | 2023.02.08 | 13 | 9 | N08W66 | 0080 | DAI |
 |
 |
see AR 13208 | ||
| S8259 | 2023.02.08 | N18E47 | |||||||||
| S8260 | 2023.02.08 | 4 | S13E04 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8261 | 2023.02.08 | S09W09 | |||||||||
| 13220 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
3 | 5 | 2 | S15E64 | 0130 | CSO | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0310 location: S14E64 |
| 13221 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
2 | 3 | 3 | N16E62 | 0100 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
area: 0180 location: N15E61 |
| S8264 | 2023.02.09 | 6 | 3 | S10E57 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13222 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.10 |
2 | 9 | 5 | N35W64 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0060 location: N30W68 |
|
| S8266 | 2023.02.09 | 1 | 1 | N18E45 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 70 | 226 | 118 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 190 | 396 | 268 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 124 | 288 | 176 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 209 | 218 | 214 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.7 |
| 2023.02 | 164.8 (1) | 39.1 (2A) / 109.5 (2B) / 168.6 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (11.6) | |
| 2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
