The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14, very weakly under the influence of CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 324 and 400 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. The likely arrival of the February 11 CME was observed at DSCOVR at 22:00 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 179.7 - decreasing 40.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 132.79). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.5). Three hour interval K indices: 21311112 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 10221224 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 329) and in 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 245) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13213 [N31W82] rotated mostly out of
view and produced the largest flare of the day while at the northwest limb.
Region 13214 [N11W72] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13216 [N24W32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13217 [S12W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13219 [S08W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13220 [S13E11] was quiet and stable.
Region 13221 [N15E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13223 [N16W22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13224 [N20E09] was quiet and stable.
Region 13225 [S21W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13226 [N10E20] gained area and matured in the leading spot
section. Two small magnetic deltas were still present late in the day. Further M class flares are likely.
C1 flares: C1.7 @ 03:41 UT
Region 13227 [S03E31] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13228 [S26E02] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8260 [S16W42] was quiet and stable.
S8264 [S13E05] was quiet and stable.
S8271 [S24W60] was quiet and stable
S8279 [N21E30] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 00:20 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 00:53 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.8/1N | 02:03 | N10E39 | 13226 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13213 |
| C2.7 | 04:14 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 05:17 | 13226 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13214 by SWPC | |
| C9.6 | 06:25 | 13213 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to much smaller simultaneous flare in AR 13226 by SWPC | |
| C7.2 | 06:58 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 08:14 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 08:56 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 09:43 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 10:07 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 10:45 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 11:19 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.6 | 12:12 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 13:51 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 15:05 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 15:58 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 17:00 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 17:35 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.9 | 21:25 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 23:48 | 13226 | GOES16 |
February 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1130) was Earth facing on February 14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 15 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is expected for February 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13213 | 2023.02.04 2023.02.06 |
9 | 1 | 1 | N28W92 | 0140 | FAO | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N31W82 area: 0010 |
| 13214 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
6 | 8 | 8 | N11W74 | 0320 | EHO | EAO |
 |
 |
location: N12W72 |
| 13215 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
N22W52 |
 |
location: N23W47 |
|||||||
| 13216 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
2 | 8 | 5 | N24W34 | 0090 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N24W32 area: 0140 |
| S8250 | 2023.02.06 | S25W47 | |||||||||
| 13218 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
1 | N11W23 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
location: N10W21 spotless |
||||
| 13217 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
4 | 12 | 5 | S10W06 | 0250 | HHX | CHO |
 |
 |
location: S12W05 area: 0280 |
| 13219 | 2023.02.08 2023.02.09 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S06W13 | 0005 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S08W10 area: 0012 |
| S8259 | 2023.02.08 | N18W05 | |||||||||
| S8260 | 2023.02.08 | 1 | 1 | S16W42 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13220 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
3 | 13 | 7 | S14E10 | 0140 | HSX | CHO |
 |
 |
area: 0270 location: S13E11 |
| 13221 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
3 | 8 | 3 | N16E08 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N15E08 |
| S8264 | 2023.02.09 | 8 | 3 | S13E05 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13223 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.11 |
6 | 2 | N17W12 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N13W09 | ||
| 13224 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.11 |
5 | 16 | 7 | N23E08 | 0010 | BXO | HRX |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: N20E09 |
| 13225 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.12 |
11 | 25 | 12 | S20W21 | 0030 | CRI | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: S21W18 |
| S8269 | 2023.02.11 | S23W53 | |||||||||
| S8271 | 2023.02.11 | 5 | 2 | S24W60 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13228 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.13 |
2 | 6 | 2 | S24W00 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| S8273 | 2023.02.11 | N27E20 | |||||||||
| S8274 | 2023.02.11 | N22E28 | |||||||||
| S8275 | 2023.02.11 | S04W25 | |||||||||
| 13226 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
26 | 32 | 23 | N10E20 | 0480 | DKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0590 |
| 13227 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
3 | 4 | 2 | S03E29 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S03E31 area: 0035 |
| S8278 | 2023.02.12 | S00W27 | |||||||||
| S8279 | 2023.02.13 | 3 | N21E30 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 76 | 159 | 85 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 206 | 329 | 245 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 124 | 211 | 137 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 227 | 181 | 196 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 173.3 (1) | 67.6 (2A) / 135.1 (2B) / 166.8 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (10.1) | |
| 2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
