The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 18 due to CME effects.Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 600 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 220.3 - increasing 89.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 128.60). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.4). Three hour interval K indices: 44332220 (planetary), 33333331 (Boulder), 55222312 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 401) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 258) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13184 [S13W51] was quiet and
stable.
Region 13186 [N22W43] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13188 [S25W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13190 [S14E07] produced the largest
flare of the day and has major flare
potential. No major changes were observed.
Region 13191 [N11W02] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13192 [N18E10] was mostly unchanged and produced a few flares.
M class flares are possible. C1 flare: C1.9 @ 18:15 UT.
Region 13193 [S22W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13194 [S23W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13195 [N21W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13196 [N12E45] emerged on January 17 and was numbered by
SWPC the next day. A magnetic delta has formed in the trailing spot section
and further C and M class flaring is likely. The region was the source of an
M1.1 flare at 04:03 UT on January 19.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8178 [N12E11] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region S8190 [N27E69] rotated into view with small spots.
New region S8192 [N17E58] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8193 [N23E47] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 01:21 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 01:42 | 13196 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 02:42 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 03:25 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 03:58 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 05:13 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.9 | 05:19 | S17E26 | 13190 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8178 |
| C2.3 | 06:39 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 06:50 | 13196 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 09:43 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.8 | 10:35 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 13:13 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 13:25 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 14:07 | 13196 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 14:40 | 13196 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13186 by SWPC | |
| C3.4 | 15:31 | N19E17 | 13192 | GOES16 | |
| C2.8 | 16:01 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.4 | 20:47 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 21:35 | S8178 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 22:26 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 23:06 | S21E16 | 13190 | GOES16 |
January 16-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) was Earth facing on January 16. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1126) will likely rotate across the central meridian on January 21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on January 19-21 with a chance of active intervals on January 19-20 if a high speed stream from CH1125 arrives.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
3 | 18 | 4 | S13W51 | 0180 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
5 | 16 | 7 | N24W41 | 0350 | EHO | EHO |
 |
 |
location N23W43 area: 0460 |
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
3 | 6 | S24W16 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S25W17 | |
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
8 | 21 | 17 | N11W04 | 0230 | DSI | DSI |
 |
 |
location: N11W02 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
17 | 59 | 32 | N16E13 | 0420 | FKI | FAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N18E10 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
17 | 50 | 38 | S15E09 | 0950 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 1070 location: S14E07 |
| 13195 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.17 |
5 | 14 | 5 | N20W09 | 0030 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N21W10 |
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 30 | 15 | N12E11 | 0080 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| 13194 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.15 |
2 | 15 | 6 | S23W04 | 0000 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S23W02 area: 0030 |
| S8180 | 2023.01.13 | S18W45 | |||||||||
| S8181 | 2023.01.13 | S22W09 | |||||||||
| 13193 | 2023.01.14 2023.01.15 |
2 | 5 | 3 | S22W70 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S22W68 |
| S8184 | 2023.01.14 | S27W41 | |||||||||
| S8185 | 2023.01.16 | S13E45 | |||||||||
| S8186 | 2023.01.17 | S27E11 |
 |
||||||||
| 13196 | 2023.01.17 2023.01.18 |
2 | 14 | 7 | N12E44 | 0030 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-delta area: 0060 |
| S8190 | 2023.01.18 | 5 | 2 | N27E69 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8192 | 2023.01.18 | 5 | 2 | N17E58 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8193 | 2023.01.18 | 3 | N23E47 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 64 | 261 | 138 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 164 | 401 | 258 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 110 | 308 | 185 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 180 | 221 | 206 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 190.0 (1) | 81.5 (2A) / 140.4 (2B) / 156.1 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (9.6) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
