The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 27 under the influence of effects from CH1126. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 454 and 630 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 144.9 - decreasing 20.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 130.70). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.5). Three hour interval K indices: 10223322 (planetary), 01333322 (Boulder), 11023315 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 221) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 115) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13196 [N12W81] developed slowly and
produced several flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 05:13, C1.8 @ 14:22, C1.4 @ 21:39
UT
Region 13197 [N18W71] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13198 [N26W48] was quiet and stable.
Region 13200 [N20W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13201 [N23E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13203 [N17E06] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8195 [N10W31] developed slowly and quietly.
S8196 [N20W29] decayed further and could become spotless today.
S8209 [S29E05] was quiet and stable.
S8210 [N24W18] developed slowly and quietly.
S8214 [S18E68] was quiet and stable.
S8215 [S12E25] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8216 [S19E40] was quiet and stable.
New region S8218 [N19E66] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S8219 [N10E01] emerged with tiny spots.
AR 13192 behind the northwest limb was the likely source of a C1.7 flare at 00:58 and a C1.7 flare at 06:36 UT.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.8 | 01:36 | behind SE limb | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 02:07 | behind NW limb | 13192? | GOES16 | |
| C5.2 | 07:48 | SE limb | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C2.2 | 10:31 | 13196 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 14:39 | 13196 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8218 | |
| C2.0 | 16:27 | SE limb | GOES16 |
January 25-27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1127) was Earth facing on January 24. A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1128) will be Earth facing on January 28.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 28 due to effects from CH1127. Quiet conditions are likely on January 29-30.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13196 | 2023.01.17 2023.01.18 |
3 | 5 | 2 | N17W71 | 0020 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N12W81 area: 0040 SWPC data has created confusion. They have moved AR 13196 to near the location of AR 13197, and created new AR 13202 in the location of AR 13196. |
| 13198 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N26W50 | 0020 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N26W48 area: 0040 |
| 13197 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
2 | 1 | N20W59 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N18W71 AR 13197 is another victim in the confusion SWPC has created with their January 25 interpretation. The region has been moved to near the location of AR S8200 as the original AR 13196 has been moved to the location of AR 13197. |
||
| S8195 | 2023.01.19 | 4 | 2 | N10W31 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8196 | 2023.01.19 | 2 | N20W29 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8200 | 2023.01.19 | N21W60 |
 |
||||||||
| 13199 | 2023.01.20 | 1 | N16W36 | 0010 | AXX | SWPC considers ARs S8195 and S8196 to be one group | |||||
| 13200 | 2023.01.21 2023.01.22 |
2 | 11 | 6 | N21W01 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N20W05 area: 0030 |
| S8204 | 2023.01.21 | N13E03 | |||||||||
| S8206 | 2023.01.21 | S30W56 | |||||||||
| 13201 | 2023.01.23 2023.01.24 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N25E17 | 0060 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N23E18 |
| S8209 | 2023.01.23 | 4 | S29E05 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8210 | 2023.01.23 | 4 | 3 | N24W18 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8211 | 2023.01.24 | S04W46 | |||||||||
| 13203 | 2023.01.24 2023.01.25 |
3 | 17 | 8 | N16E03 | 0010 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
area: 0040 location: N17E06 |
| 13202 | 2023.01.25 | 3 | N11W78 | 0040| | CAO | SWPC has created a new region in the position of AR 13196 | |||||
| S8213 | 2023.01.25 | S27W26 | |||||||||
| S8214 | 2023.01.26 | 3 | 1 | S18E68 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8215 | 2023.01.26 | 2 | S12E25 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8216 | 2023.01.26 | 6 | S19E40 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8217 | 2023.01.26 | S41W21 |
 |
||||||||
| S8218 | 2023.01.27 | 2 | N19E66 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S8219 | 2023.01.27 | 3 | N10E01 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 14 | 71 | 25 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 84 | 221 | 115 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 34 | 96 | 50 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 122 | 92 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.13 |
| 2023.01 | 189.1 (1) | 124.2 (2A) / 142.6 (2B) / 172.3 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (9.0) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
