The geomagnetic field was very quiet on July 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 433 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 190.4 - increasing 44.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 146.96. In comparison SC24 peaked on June 28, 2014 at 145.50). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11111111 (planetary), 22121322 (Boulder), 33112113 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 367) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 221) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13359 [S22W68] decayed and had only 2 tiny spots left by the
end of the day.
Region 13360 [N22W59] gained a few spots and
lost area on some spots.
Region 13361 [N24W37] has 2 magnetic delta structures in the
intermediate and trailing spot sections. An M flare is possible.
Region 13362 [S08W04] was quiet and stable.
Region 13363 [S21E18] was mostly quiet and stable. M flares are
possible.
Region 13364 [N24E02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13365 [S34W63] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13366 [S11W56] has weak polarity
intermixing with new small spots emerging to the southeast of the leading
penumbra. M class flares were observed in conjunction with the trailing
polarity area of spotless AR 13358.
Region 13367 [N10W13] developed slowly and produced several C flares.
The region has weak magnetic delta structures in the intermediate spot
section. M flares are possible.
Region 13368 [S18W48] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13369 [S19W35] matured and displayed signs of decay.
New region 13370 [S16E61] rotated into view on July 9 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. C flares are possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New region S8751 [S15E74] rotated into view
with a mature spot.
New region S8752 [N14E48] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8753 [S27E68] emerged with tiny spots.
A very active region is about to rotate into view at the northeast limb. M flares are possible.
Minor update added at 18:20 UT: AR S8754 at the northeast limb produced a major M6.8 flare at 18:08 UT. Further M class flares are likely from this spot group. Only a few spots are visible, and so far the region looks to have an EKO classification.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.4 | 00:32 | S23E31 | 13363 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 00:43 | S13W46 | 13366 | GOES16 | |
| C3.7 | 01:17 | 13366 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.3/1N | 01:58 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.3/1F | 03:54 | S13W49 | 13366 | GOES16 | full halo CME, weak type II radio sweep, small proton event |
| C4.0 | 05:16 | 13368 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13366 | |
| C4.5 | 05:31 | S12W38 | 13366 | GOES16 | |
| C4.2 | 06:19 | N10W03 | 13367 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13370 |
| C3.0 | 06:45 | 13370 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 07:17 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 07:55 | 13370 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 09:15 | N09W04 | 13367 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 09:42 | 13361 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 09:50 | 13370 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 10:18 | N09W05 | 13367 | GOES16 | |
| C3.0 | 10:23 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 10:33 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 11:56 | 13370 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 13:21 | 13367 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 14:42 | 13366 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 14:55 | 13366 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 15:33 | 13367 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13366 | |
| C2.8 | 17:22 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 18:33 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C3.5 | 19:11 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 19:28 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | attributed to smaller flare in AR 13366 by SWPC | |
| C2.6 | 21:42 | behind northeast limb | GOES16 | ||
| M1.4/1N | 22:18 | S12W59 | 13366 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 00:09 | northeast limb | GOES16 |
July 8-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were
observed.
July 10: An asymmetrical full halo CME was observed after the M2
flare in AR 13366 at 03:55 UT. The main part of the ejecta is not headed
towards Earth, however, components of the CME will likely reach us on July
13 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1159) rotated across the central meridian on July 10. CH1159 has lost a large part of its area since July 7 due to the development of AR 13367.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
A mostly quiet geomagnetic field is expected on July 11-12. The July 10 CME will likely arrive on July 13 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Quiet to active is likely on July 13-14 due to effects from CH1159.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13358 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
S13W64 |
 |
|
|||||||
| 13359 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
3 | 2 | S21W68 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0002 |
|
| 13366 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.07 |
6 | 22 | 12 | S10W52 | 0130 | DSI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0260 location: S11W56 |
| 13360 | 2023.06.30 2023.07.01 |
7 | 20 | 9 | N22W59 | 0030 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| 13368 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.09 |
9 | 34 | 14 | S19W47 | 0100 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma |
| 13361 | 2023.07.02 2023.07.04 |
12 | 31 | 19 | N24W38 | 0270 | EHC | ESC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N24W37 area: 0400 |
| S8730 | 2023.07.03 | N18W50 | |||||||||
| 13362 | 2023.07.04 2023.07.05 |
2 | 3 | 2 | S09W06 | 0040 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S08W04 area: 0060 |
| S8733 | 2023.07.04 | N30W36 | |||||||||
| 13363 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
7 | 29 | 12 | S21E17 | 0500 | CKO | DKO |
 |
 |
location: S21E18 area: 0970 |
| 13364 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.06 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N24E01 | 0010 | AXX | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N24E02 |
| 13365 | 2023.07.05 2023.07.07 |
1 | S36W63 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S34W63 |
|||
| S8739 | 2023.07.06 | N09W38 |
 |
||||||||
| 13367 | 2023.07.07 2023.07.08 |
13 | 43 | 28 | N10W13 | 0120 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0280 |
| S8743 | 2023.07.07 | N24W21 | |||||||||
| S8744 | 2023.07.07 | S05W56 | |||||||||
| 13369 | 2023.07.08 2023.07.09 |
7 | 8 | 6 | S18W37 | 0050 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 |
| S8746 | 2023.07.08 | S29W03 | |||||||||
| 13370 | 2023.07.09 2023.07.10 |
4 | 13 | 6 | S15E61 | 0030 | DSO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| S8748 | 2023.07.09 | N31E06 |
 |
||||||||
| S8749 | 2023.07.09 | S02W30 |
 |
||||||||
| S8750 | 2023.07.09 | S32W45 |
 |
||||||||
| S8751 | 2023.07.10 | 2 | 2 | S15E74 | 0160 | HAX |
 |
||||
| S8752 | 2023.07.10 | 3 | N14E48 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8753 | 2023.07.10 | 2 | S27E68 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 71 | 217 | 111 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 181 | 367 | 221 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 124 | 271 | 165 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 199 | 202 | 177 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.4 (+4.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 81.1 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.7 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.5 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | 96.4 (+3.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.5 | 98.7 (+2.3) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 80.5 | 101.0 (+2.3) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 112.8 | 106.6 (+5.6) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.7 projected, +6.1) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.5 projected, +4.8) | 14.48 (current SC25 peak) |
| 2023.03 | 157.2 | 155.6 | 122.6 | (121.6 projected, +3.1) | 14.42 |
| 2023.04 | 145.4 | 146.4 | 96.4 | (127.0 projected, +5.4) | 13.40 |
| 2023.05 | 155.6 | 159.2 | 137.9 | (132.7 projected, +5.7) | 10.67 |
| 2023.06 | 161.7 | 166.8 | 163.4 | (135.9 projected, +3.2) | 8.9 |
| 2023.07 | 168.0 (1) | 47.1 (2A) / 146.1 (2B) / 170.3 (2C) | (135.4 projected, -0.5) | (6.2) | |
| 2023.08 | (136.4 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.09 | (139.8 projected, +3.4) | ||||
| 2023.10 | (141.6 projected, +1.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (144.2 projected max SC25, +2.6) | ||||
| 2023.12 | (143.4 projected, -0.1) | ||||
| 2024.01 | (140.1 projected, -3.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
