The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on March 5 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1133. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 513 and 755 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to severe storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 179.8 - increasing 23.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 136.02). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 22 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 21.8). Three hour interval K indices: 33434344 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 44335476 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 367) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 245) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13238 [N08W15] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13239 [N33E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13240 [S16E05] was quiet and stable.
Region 13241 [N28E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13242 [N10E24] developed further and has a magnetic delta in
an intermediate spot section. A major flare is possible.
Region 13243 [N18W61] developed further and gained a magnetic delta
as a compact group.
Further major flares are possible.
Region 13244 [S22W44] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13245 [S23E48] developed slowly and could produce M flares.
New region 13246 [N23E68] rotated into view on March 4 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8327 [S09W07] developed slowly and has polarity intermixing. C and
maybe a minor M class flares are possible.
S8336 [S08E32] was quiet and stable.
New region S8337 [S23E81] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S8338 [N15W31] emerged with several spots.
New region S8339 [N13W35] emerged to the southwest of AR S8338.
New region S8340 [N28W05] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8341 [S04E18] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.2 | 00:43 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 01:19 | 13238 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 01:54 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 02:52 | 13234 | GOES16 | attributed by SWPC to smaller, simultaneous event in AR 13238 | |
| C8.2 | 03:54 | N18W47 | 13243 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 06:39 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 07:48 | 13238 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 11:03 | 13238 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.6 | 11:33 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 13:06 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.2 | 13:58 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 16:41 | N10W12 | 13238 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in AR 13243 and AR 13242 |
| M1.0 | 17:01 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.8 | 19:33 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 21:02 | 13245 | GOES16 | ||
| M5.0 | 21:36 | 13243 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 23:47 | 13246 | GOES16 |
March 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 6: A faint full halo CME was observed after the major M5.8
flare in AR 13243 early in the day.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1133) rotated across the central meridian on March 1-3.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on March 6 due to effects from CH1133, isolated minor storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled is possible on March 7-8.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13244 | 2023.02.25 2023.03.03 |
5 | 18 | 12 | S22W46 | 0030 | DSO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S22W44 area: 0080 |
| 13238 | 2023.02.26 2023.02.27 |
4 | 9 | 4 | N09W18 | 0090 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N08W15 area: 0070 |
| 13239 | 2023.02.27 2023.02.28 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N31E01 | 0110 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N33E05 area: 0140 |
| S8318 | 2023.02.27 | S29W42 | |||||||||
| 13241 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N27E19 | 0050 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N28E18 area: 0070 |
| 13240 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
5 | 14 | 3 | S16E01 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0020 location: S16E05 |
| S8321 | 2023.02.28 | N41W36 | |||||||||
| 13242 | 2023.03.01 2023.03.02 |
16 | 59 | 29 | N10E26 | 0170 | EAI | FKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0400 location: N10E24 |
| 13243 | 2023.03.01 2023.03.03 |
12 | 31 | 12 | N18W64 | 0110 | DAO | DAC |
 |
 |
area: 0230 location: N18W61 |
| S8325 | 2023.03.01 | N17W41 | |||||||||
| S8326 | 2023.03.02 | S20W15 | |||||||||
| S8327 | 2023.03.02 | 28 | 11 | S09W07 | 0110 | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| 13245 | 2023.03.02 2023.03.03 |
2 | 14 | 8 | S23E47 | 0140 | HAX | DKO |
 |
 |
area: 0400 location: S23E48 |
| S8330 | 2023.03.03 | S17E38 | |||||||||
| S8331 | 2023.03.03 | S30W11 |
 |
||||||||
| S8332 | 2023.03.03 | N27W41 | |||||||||
| S8333 | 2023.03.04 | N28W20 |
 |
||||||||
| 13246 | 2023.03.04 2023.03.05 |
1 | 8 | 5 | N23E70 | 0060 | HSX | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| S8335 | 2023.03.04 | N22E24 |
 |
||||||||
| S8336 | 2023.03.04 | 2 | 1 | S08E32 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8337 | 2023.03.05 | 4 | 2 | S23E81 | 0130 | CAO |
 |
||||
| S8338 | 2023.03.05 | 6 | 4 | N15W31 | 0016 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8339 | 2023.03.05 | 2 | 1 | N13W35 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8340 | 2023.03.05 | 3 | 1 | N28W05 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8341 | 2023.03.05 | 2 | S04E18 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 47 | 207 | 95 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 137 | 367 | 245 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 87 | 266 | 154 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 151 | 202 | 196 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.3 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.0 projected, +4.7) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.2 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.0 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.8 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.9 projected, +5.1) | 14.6 |
| 2023.03 | 173.6 (1) | 18.9 (2A) / 117.0 (2B) / 155.8 (2C) | (122.0 projected, +3.1) | (15.1) | |
| 2023.04 | (127.4 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.2 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.4 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (135.9 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (136.9 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
