The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 308 and 364 km/sec, averaging 324 km/sec (-27 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to unsettled levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux fluctuated throughout the day peaking at 17:6 pfu at 15:55 UT and ending the UT day at 4 pfu. A surge in proton levels is possible when the July 30 CME reaches Earth.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 147.6 - decreasing 13.0 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 140.36 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.9 (41 days ago, this is 42.9% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 11112111 (planetary), 11113422 (Boulder), 32112313 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 297) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 188) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14492 [N16W86] rotated partly out of view
and was quiet.
AR 14494 [S03W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14496 [N05W36] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14498 [N14E24] regained a small magnetic delta in the trailing
spots. A major flare is possible in conjunction with AR 14500. C1 flares:
C1.7 @ 19:50, C1.8 @ 20:13, C1.2 @ 20:39 UT
AR 14499 [N03W08] lost the magnetic delta observed the previous day
and gained a smaller magnetic delta in the intermediate spot section. Most
of the flares of the day had their origin in this spot group. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 05:33, C1.6 @ 07:27, C1.4 @ 08:33, C1.3 @ 10:11, C1.7 @ 13:57, C1.6 @
18:12 UT
AR 14500 [N17E28] appeared to decay slightly as the region continued
to approach the northeastern spots of AR 14498. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 00:22,
C1.8 @ 01:29 UT
AR 14501 [S07W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S12445 [N04W26] reemerged with tiny spots.
AR S12448 [N06W20] was quiet and stable.
AR S12256 [S14E21] was quiet and stable.
AR S12257 [N09E46] decayed slowly and quietly.
New AR S12259 [N17W73] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S12260 [S06E31] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S12261 [N06E17] emerged with tiny spots.
New AR S12262 [N04E18] emerged with tiny spots and an east-west
inversion line.
New AR S12263 [N31E15] emerged with tiny spots.
C1 flares not attributed to an AR due to missing imagery: C1.8 @ 07:07 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.3 | 02:39 | 14499 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.1 | 03:16 | 14498 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 03:54 | 14498 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.2 | 04:46 | 14499 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:53 | 14499 | GOES18 | simultaneous flare in AR 14500 | |
| C2.2 | 06:10 | 14499 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:47 | N05E00 | 14499 | GOES18 | |
| C2.2 | 06:57 | GOES18 | |||
| C2.3/1F | 11:19 | N06W00 | 14499 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 11:41 | 14499 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.0 | 11:47 | 14499 | GOES18 |
July 29, 31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
July 30: A full halo CME was observed after the M1.9 LDE in AR 14492.
The CME could reach Earth late on August 1 or sometime on August 2.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels initially on August 1. Late in the day or on August 2 the July 30 CME is expected to arrive and cause active to major storm conditions. Quiet levels are likely on August 3-4.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14492 | 2026.07.18 2026.07.19 |
2 | 2 | 2 | N15W88 | 0110 | HAX | HKX |
 |
 |
was AR S12227 area: 0270 location: N16W86 |
| 14497 | 2026.07.20 2026.07.26 |
S21W88 |
 |
was AR S12230 | |||||||
| 14494 | 2026.07.20 2026.07.21 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S05W70 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
was AR S12231 location: S03W69 |
| 14495 | 2026.07.22 2026.07.23 |
1 | S04W83 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
was AR S12241 spotless location: S02W82 |
||||
| 14496 | 2026.07.22 2026.07.23 |
4 | 8 | 4 | N05W37 | 0110 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
was AR S12242 area: 0170 location: N05W36 |
| S12245 | 2026.07.24 | 2 | N04W26 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S12246 | 2026.07.25 | S23W51 | |||||||||
| S12247 | 2026.07.25 | N18W49 | |||||||||
| S12248 | 2026.07.26 | 2 | N06W20 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 14498 | 2026.07.27 2026.07.27 |
8 | 27 | 13 | N14E22 | 0150 | DAI | DHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12449 area: 0370 |
| 14499 | 2026.07.27 2026.07.28 |
12 | 32 | 16 | N05W08 | 0080 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-delta was AR S12250 location: N03W08 |
| S12251 | 2026.07.27 | N07W51 | |||||||||
| 14500 | 2026.07.28 2026.07.29 |
7 | 21 | 10 | N18E28 | 0050 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S12252 area: 0180 location: N17E28 |
| 14501 | 2026.07.28 2026.07.29 |
8 | 16 | 11 | S08W12 | 0040 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
was AR S12253 area: 0230 location: S07W14 |
| S12254 | 2026.07.28 | N21E21 | |||||||||
| S12255 | 2026.07.28 | N14W11 |
 |
||||||||
| S12256 | 2026.07.29 | 10 | 3 | S14E21 | 0025 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S12257 | 2026.07.30 | 1 | N09E46 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S12258 | 2026.07.30 | N19E07 |
 |
||||||||
| S12259 | 2026.07.31 | 3 | 1 | N17W73 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S12260 | 2026.07.31 | 4 | 3 | S06E31 | 0015 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S12261 | 2026.07.31 | 2 | 2 | N06E17 | 0012 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S12262 | 2026.07.31 | 3 | 2 | N04E18 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S12263 | 2026.07.31 | 2 | N31E15 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 43 | 137 | 68 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 123 | 297 | 188 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 73 | 186 | 117 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 135 | 163 | 150 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | 128.6 (-4.7) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | 124.7 (-3.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.5 (-2.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.4 (-4.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 113.1 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.5 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.9 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 107.0 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 115.0 | 104.2 (-2.8) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 77.4 | (99.7 projected, -4.5) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 86.6 | (94.6 projected, -5.1) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (90.7 projected, -3.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (89.5 projected, -1.2) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (87.4 projected, -2.1) | 9.57 |
| 2026.07 | 134.7 | 139.0 | 78.1 | (82.8 projected, -4.6) | 10.3 |
| 2026.08 | (1) | (2A/2B) / 96.4 (2C) | (80.6 projected, -2.2) | () | |
| 2026.09 | (79.7 projected, -0.9) | ||||
| 2026.10 | (77.7 projected, -2.0) | ||||
| 2026.11 | (74.8 projected, -2.9) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (71.6 projected, -3.2) | ||||
| 2027.01 | (69.3 projected, -2.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
