Last major update issued on October 11, 2009 at 06:35 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on October10. Solar wind speed ranged between 271 and 307 km/s. The leading part of a low speed stream from CH382 was observed at ACE just after 23h UTC, arriving several hours later than expected. Geomagnetic conditions have become unsettled early on October 11.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 70.0. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00011011 (planetary), 00011100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S744] This region emerged in the northwest quadrant late on October 10. Location at midnight: N18W14
October 8-10: No partially or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH382) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on October 6-7. A recurrent extension of the northern polar coronal hole will be rotating across the central meridian on October 11. The southernmost parts of this extension is probably too far to the north to cause any terrestrial effect.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 23:24 UTC on October 10. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 11 due to effects from CH382 and quiet on October 12-14.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||0||3|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
probably the sunspot minimum
|2009.04||69.7||1.2||(2.3 predicted, +0.3)|
|2009.05||70.5||2.9||(2.6 predicted, +0.3)|
|2009.06||68.6||2.6||(3.1 predicted, +0.5)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.5||(3.9 predicted, +0.8)|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||(4.8 predicted, +0.9)|
|2009.09||70.5||4.2||(5.9 predicted, +1.1)|
|2009.10||70.2 (1)||0.4 (2)||(6.8 predicted, +0.9)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.