Last major update issued on November 11, 2010 at 05:35 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 269 and 333 km/s. A disturbance began after 17h UTC, possibly related to the arrival of a coronal hole stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.6 (up 5.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00000123 (planetary), 00100123 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted regions.
New region 11123 emerged on November 9 in the southeast quadrant and
was numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC. The region developed fairly quickly on
November 10. C flares are possible, as is a minor M class flare.
New region 11124 emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 9 and was numbered the following day by NOAA/SWPC. Slow development was observed on November 10.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S835] This region emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 10. Location at midnight: N18E27
[S836] This region emerged to the northeast of region 11124 on November 10. Location at midnight: N19E48
November 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH427) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 11-12.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance active intervals on November 11. Quiet conditions are likely on November 12-14. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on November 15-16 due to effects from CH427.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|11123||2010.11.10||8||13||S23E16||0030||DRO||DAI||formerly region S833
|11124||2010.11.10||2||4||N14E38||0020||DRO||DRO||formerly region S834|
|Total spot count:||15||19|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||(15.4 predicted, +1.4)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||(16.8 predicted, +1.4)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(18.4 predicted, +1.6)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(19.6 predicted, +1.2)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(20.9 predicted, +1.3)||5.33|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||(23.2 predicted, +2.3)||6.07|
|2010.11||82.6 (1)||11.0 (2A) / 33.1 (2B)||(26.2 predicted, +3.0)||(2.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.