Last major update issued on November 14, 2010 at 06:15 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update November 14, 2010)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update
November 14, 2010)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update
November 14, 2010)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update October
9, 2010)]
[POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 430 and 525 km/s under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.4 (up 1.8 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 20112233 (planetary), 21122112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A9 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 5 spotted regions.
Region 11123 decayed quickly and is without penumbra on both
polarities.
Flares: C1.3 at 11:39 and C1.1 at 00:01 (peak
on November 14, flare began at 23:50) UTC.
Region 11124 added several spots and remained mostly quiet. C flares
are possible.
Region 11125 developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11126 was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S837] This region emerged late on November 13 near the northwest
limb. Location at midnight: N15W75
November 11 and 13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO
images.
November 12: A partial halo CME was observed over the southern hemisphere
following a filament eruption beginning at 16h UTC (the eruption was probably
triggered by a C4.6 flare in region 11123). The CME was unimpressive and it is
uncertain if it will reach Earth at all.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH427) was in an Earth facing position on November 11-12.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 14-16 with a chance of active intervals due to effects from CH427.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500 image |
Comment | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
11121 | 2010.11.04 | S23W54 | plage | |||||||
11123 | 2010.11.10 | 7 | 11 | S23W24 | 0050 | CRO | BXO | area: 0020 | ||
11124 | 2010.11.10 | 11 | 16 | N14W03 | 0080 | DSI | CAI | area: 0130 | ||
S835 | 2010.11.10 | N18W12 | plage | |||||||
11125 | 2010.11.11 | 3 | 5 | N19E08 | 0030 | CRO | CRO | |||
11126 | 2010.11.12 | 2 | 3 | S30E59 | 0020 | CRO | CSO | area: 0030 | ||
S837 | 2010.11.13 | 1 | N15W75 | 0000 | AXX | |||||
Total spot count: | 23 | 36 | ||||||||
SSN: | 63 | 86 |
Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
|
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 | |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) | |
2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
2009.08 | 67.3 | 0.0 | 4.8 (+1.2) | 5.70 / 4.89 |
2009.09 | 70.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 (+1.4) | 3.88 / 3.61 |
2009.10 | 72.6 | 4.8 | 7.1 (+0.9) | 3.66 / 3.56 |
2009.11 | 73.6 | 4.1 | 7.6 (+0.5) | 2.45 / 2.63 |
2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.8 | 8.3 (+0.7) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.2 | 9.3 (+1.0) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | (15.7 predicted, +1.7) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | (17.5 predicted, +1.8) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | (19.1 predicted, +1.6) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | (20.3 predicted, +1.2) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | (21.6 predicted, +1.3) | 5.33 |
2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | (23.9 predicted, +2.3) | 6.07 |
2010.11 | 83.2 (1) | 17.0 (2A) / 39.2 (2B) | (26.8 predicted, +3.0) | (4.71) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number
(accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
the
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.