Last major update issued on November 16, 2010 at 05:10 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 569 and 828 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH427.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 90.8 (up 4.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.4). Three hour interval K indices: 23121113 (planetary), 23221113 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted regions.
Region 11124 developed further early in the day, then began to decay
slowly as the opposite polarity fields separation increased. C flares are possible.
Flare: C2.3 at 07:49 UTC.
Region 11125 decayed and could soon become spotless.
Region 11126 developed significantly and could produce C flares.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S835] This region reemerged with a few small spots on November 15. Decay was observed late in the day and the region could soon become spotless again.
[S838] A new region emerged near the southeast limb on November 15. Location at midnight: S11E63
[S839] This region rotated into view at the northeast limb late on November 15. Location at midnight: N25E83
November 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH427) was in an Earth facing position on November 11-12. A small, elongated coronal hole in the northern hemisphere will probably be numbered today, it will be in an Earth facing position on November 16-17.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 16 due to effects from CH427. Quiet conditions are likely on November 18 while another coronal hole stream could cause quiet to unsettled conditions on November 19-20.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|Total spot count:||22||39|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||(15.7 predicted, +1.7)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||(17.5 predicted, +1.8)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(19.1 predicted, +1.6)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(20.3 predicted, +1.2)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(21.6 predicted, +1.3)||5.33|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||(23.9 predicted, +2.3)||6.07|
|2010.11||83.9 (1)||21.4 (2A) / 42.7 (2B)||(26.8 predicted, +3.0)||(5.05)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.