Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 8, 2002 at 04:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[NEW! Archived reports (last update November 1, 2002)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on November 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 472 and 593 km/sec, slowly decreasing all day as the coronal stream, which began on Nov.2, finally ended.

Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 189.8, the planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 15.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 43333333 (planetary), 43233321 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.

At midnight there were 11 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 9 low level C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10175 decayed further and could become spotless today.
Region 10176 was quiet and stable.
Region 10177 decayed further losing some penumbral area and most of the small spots. Flare: C2.5 at 06:35 UTC.
Region 10179 decayed into spotless plage again.
Region 10180 developed early in the day, then lost some of the newly emerged spots. With magnetic delta structures in the largest leading and trailing penumbrae there is still a chance of a major flare. Flares: C2.8 at 09:04 UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable.
Region 10185 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10186 decayed quickly and will likely become spotless today.
Region 10187 decayed and could become spotless today.
Region 10188 developed slowly and quietly. Most of the development occurred in the trailing spot section. There appears to be a small and weak magnetic delta structure in the northeastern corner of the trailing penumbra.
Region 10189 developed slowly early in the day, then began to decay slowly. The region could soon become spotless.
New region 10190 emerged early in the day, developed quickly early on, then decayed slowly during the latter half of the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 5-7: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

The southernmost extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 7. A coronal hole is rotating into view at the southeast limb near the equator and will likely be in a geoeffective position on November 12-13.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 7. The black areas on the solar disk  are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 8-9 and quiet to active, possibly with minor storm intervals on November 10-11. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10172 2002.10.27     S16W88     plage
10174 2002.10.29     S26W60     plage
10175 2002.10.29 2 1 N14W70 0030 HSX  
10176 2002.10.29 1 1 N10W42 0120 HSX  
10177 2002.10.30 14 5 N18W36 0210 DAO  
10179 2002.11.01 2   S01W08 0010 AXX became spotless
early in the day
10180 2002.11.01 66 61 S10W14 0590 FKC beta-gamma-delta
10181 2002.11.02     S07W21     plage
10182 2002.11.02 1 1 S18E02 0070 HSX  
10183 2002.11.03     N19W76     plage
10184 2002.11.03     S06W01     plage
10185 2002.11.03 19 15 S12E22 0190 DAO  
10186 2002.11.05 5 1 N20W26 0030 CRO  only an AXX group
at midnight with an
area of 0000.
10187 2002.11.06 4 1 N07W07 0020 BXO only an AXX group
at midnight with an
area of 0000.
10188 2002.11.06 16 21 N11E07 0110 DAO beta-gamma-delta?
10189 2002.11.06 2 1 N14E43 0020 BXO classification was
HRX at midnight
10190 2002.11.07 7 5 S22E54 0030 BXO classification was
CAO at midnight
S20 emerged on
2002.10.31
    N15W53     plage
S25 emerged on
2002.11.05
    N15W07     plage
Total spot count: 139 113
SSN: 259 223

Monthly solar data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1)
2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5)
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1)
2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2)
2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3)
2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9)
2002.05 178.4 120.8 (108.2 predicted, -2.3)
2002.06 148.7 88.3 (104.5 predicted, -3.7)
2002.07 173.5 99.9 (99.6 predicted, -4.9)
2002.08 183.6 116.4 (95.6 predicted, -4.0)
2002.09 175.8 109.3 (91.8 predicted, -3.8)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 (87.7 predicted, -4.1)
2002.11 175.8 (1) 46.4 (2) (82.4 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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