Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 14, 2002 at 03:40 UTC. Minor update posted at 07:20 UTC. The next update will be published late on November 17 due to the yearly DXLC board meeting this weekend.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 476 and 674 km/sec, peaking near 07h UTC.

Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 182.4, the planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 12.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 43223332 (planetary), 33323322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.

At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 13 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. An optically unaccounted M1.0 long duration event began at 23:00 UTC and peaked on Nov.14 at 00:17 UTC.

Region 10180 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C1.9 at 10:06 UTC.
Region 10182 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the southwest limb late today.
Region 10185 decayed and lost about half of its penumbral area. Flare: C3.4 long duration event peaking at 05:02 UTC.
Region 10189 decayed and was spotless by midnight.
Region 10190 was quiet and stable
Region 10191 developed further in the leading spot section and in the southern part of the trailing spot section. A small magnetic delta structure developed in the central trailing spot section. Major flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 02:28, C3.0 at 14:47 and C1.9 at 18:03 UTC.
Region 10192 decayed and was spotless by late afternoon.
Region 10193 decayed slightly and was quiet.
New region 10194 emerged in  the southeast quadrant.
New region 10195 rotated into view at the southeast limb.

Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S31] A region began to rotate into view at the northeast limb late on Nov.13. Location at midnight: N25E86. This is possibly the return of old region 10162.

Comment added at 07:20 UTC on November 14: A couple of changes noted early today. New flux has emerged near region 10192 and the region has developed very quickly. Incredibly 25 spots were observed just a short time ago. Polarities are currently intermixed and the region could soon become capable of producing a minor M class flare. The classification at 07h UTC was DAI. A new region has emerged quickly in the southwest quadrant just west of region 10190. This is currently a DAO region with 7 spots.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 12-13: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 12-13. An extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 13. A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 18.

Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 13. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled most of November 14. A coronal stream will likely arrive during the latter half of the day causing an increase in geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active with a possibility of minor storm intervals on November 15-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

The above image is a test composite image displaying the currently spotted regions overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering and other image processing has been applied by myself. 

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10179 2002.11.01     S01W86     plage
10180 2002.11.01 3   S11W94 0090 DAO rotated out of view
10182 2002.11.02 1 1 S18W76 0050 HSX  
10184 2002.11.03     S05W80     plage
10185 2002.11.03 7 10 S13W56 0070 DAO  
10187 2002.11.06     N08W83     plage
10188 2002.11.06     N10W74     plage
10189 2002.11.06 1   N17W34 0010 HRX now spotless
10190 2002.11.07 1 1 S21W27 0020 HSX  
10191 2002.11.08 63 81 S18E12 0800 FKC beta-gamma-delta
10192 2002.11.11 2   N14W22 0010 AXX now spotless
10193 2002.11.12 1 1 S03E07 0010 HSX  
10194 2002.11.13 2 2 S16E43 0010 AXX  
10195 2002.11.13 1 1 S15E78 0120 HAX  
S29 emerged on
2002.11.08
  N15W42     plage
S30 emerged on
2002.11.10
  S17W32     plage
S31 visible on
2002.11.13
  1 N25E86 0250 HHX  
Total spot count: 82 98
SSN: 182 178

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1)
2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5)
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1)
2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2)
2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3)
2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9)
2002.05 178.4 120.8 (109.0 predicted, -1-5)
2002.06 148.7 88.3 (107.0 predicted, -2.0)
2002.07 173.5 99.9 (103.6 predicted, -3.4)
2002.08 183.6 116.4 (100.2 predicted, -3.4)
2002.09 175.8 109.3 (96.4 predicted, -4.8)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 (92.3 predicted, -4.1)
2002.11 180.5 (1) 85.7 (2) (87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


[DX-Listeners' Club] [DX News]