Last update November 14, 2002 at 03:40 UTC. Minor update posted at 07:20 UTC. The next update will be published late on November 17 due to the yearly DXLC board meeting this weekend.
[Solar and geomagnetic data
- last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 9, 2002)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 476 and 674 km/sec, peaking near 07h UTC.
Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 182.4, the planetary A
index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 12.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 43223332 (planetary), 33323322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 13 C and 1 M class events were recorded during the day. An optically unaccounted M1.0 long duration event began at 23:00 UTC and peaked on Nov.14 at 00:17 UTC.
Region 10180 rotated out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C1.9 at
Region 10182 was quiet and stable and will rotate over the southwest limb late today.
Region 10185 decayed and lost about half of its penumbral area. Flare: C3.4 long duration event peaking at 05:02 UTC.
Region 10189 decayed and was spotless by midnight.
Region 10190 was quiet and stable
Region 10191 developed further in the leading spot section and in the southern part of the trailing spot section. A small magnetic delta structure developed in the central trailing spot section. Major flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 02:28, C3.0 at 14:47 and C1.9 at 18:03 UTC.
Region 10192 decayed and was spotless by late afternoon.
Region 10193 decayed slightly and was quiet.
New region 10194 emerged in the southeast quadrant.
New region 10195 rotated into view at the southeast limb.
Spotted regions not yet numbered:
[S31] A region began to rotate into view at the northeast limb late on Nov.13. Location at midnight: N25E86. This is possibly the return of old region 10162.
Comment added at 07:20 UTC on November 14: A couple of changes noted early today. New flux has emerged near region 10192 and the region has developed very quickly. Incredibly 25 spots were observed just a short time ago. Polarities are currently intermixed and the region could soon become capable of producing a minor M class flare. The classification at 07h UTC was DAI. A new region has emerged quickly in the southwest quadrant just west of region 10190. This is currently a DAO region with 7 spots.
November 12-13: No obviously geoeffective CMEs were observed.
A trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 12-13. An extension of the northern polar coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 13. A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 18.
Enhanced SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 13. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled most of November 14. A coronal stream will likely arrive during the latter half of the day causing an increase in geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active with a possibility of minor storm intervals on November 15-16. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
The above image is a test composite image displaying the currently spotted regions overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering and other image processing has been applied by myself.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10180||2002.11.01||3||S11W94||0090||DAO||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||82||98|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.05||178.4||120.8||(109.0 predicted, -1-5)|
|2002.06||148.7||88.3||(107.0 predicted, -2.0)|
|2002.07||173.5||99.9||(103.6 predicted, -3.4)|
|2002.08||183.6||116.4||(100.2 predicted, -3.4)|
|2002.09||175.8||109.3||(96.4 predicted, -4.8)|
|2002.10||167.0||97.5||(92.3 predicted, -4.1)|
|2002.11||180.5 (1)||85.7 (2)||(87.0 predicted, -5.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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