Last update November 28, 2002 at 04:10 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on November 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 459 and 640 km/sec.
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 142.6, the planetary A
index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 23.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 44444333 (planetary), 34433133 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 12 C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10198 developed further in the trailing spot section and could produce a minor M class flare while rotating
over the southwest limb today. Flares: C2.4 at 01:19, C6.7 long duration event peaking at
02:51, C2.3 at 09:43, C1.8 at 14:28, C3.8 at 16:53, C2.9 at 22:24 and C1.9 at 23:07 UTC.
Region 10200 added a couple of small spots and was otherwise unchanged and quiet.
Region 10202 gained several trailing spots as the region developed slowly.
Region 10203 was quiet and stable.
New region 10204 emerged in the northeast quadrant and initially developed quickly. Slow decay was observed during the latter half of the day as the region lost most of the spots that had emerged early on.
New region 10205 rotated into view at the northeast limb on Nov.26 and was numbered on Nov.27.
New region 10206 emerged in the southeast quadrant early in the day with several spots. The region decayed after noon and could soon become spotless.
New region 10207 rotated partly into view on Nov.26 and was numbered on Nov.27. The region could be capable of producing occasional minor M class flares. Flare: C3.5 at 21:32 UTC.
November 25-27: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.
A trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on November 27-28.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 27. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 28-29. A coronal stream could reach Earth on Nov.30 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was CRO
classification was CRO
single polarity spots,
classification was HSX
area was 0020 at
was CRO then.
|10205||2002.11.27||1||1||N19E63||0050||HSX||formerly region S36|
classification was AXX
formerly region S37,
area was near 0400
|Total spot count:||32||36|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.05||178.4||120.8||(109.0 predicted, -1-5)|
|2002.06||148.7||88.3||(107.0 predicted, -2.0)|
|2002.07||173.5||99.9||(103.6 predicted, -3.4)|
|2002.08||183.6||116.4||(100.2 predicted, -3.4)|
|2002.09||175.8||109.3||(96.4 predicted, -4.8)|
|2002.10||167.0||97.5||(92.3 predicted, -4.1)|
|2002.11||171.6 (1)||148.2 (2)||(87.0 predicted, -5.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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