Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last update November 29, 2002 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 24, 2002)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 462 and 548 km/sec.

Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 139.7, the planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 16.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 34333332 (planetary), 34322432 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At midnight there were 7 spotted regions on the visible disk. A total of 15 C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10198 rotated over the southwest limb with only a couple of spots remaining visible by the end of the day. Flares: C2.4 at 00:42, C3.7/1F at 01:07, C2.4 at 03:00, C1.0 at 04:37, C2.5 at 05:43, C4.3 at 08:21, C3.4 at 10:22, C8.4 long duration event peaking at 11:36 and C1.7 at 12:56 UTC.
Region 10200 decayed and could become spotless today.
Region 10202 decayed and lost most of its penumbral area.
Region 10203 was quiet and stable.
Region 10204 was mostly unchanged and quiet.
Region 10205 was quiet and stable.
Region 10206 decayed and was spotless by early evening.
Region 10207 developed slowly and added a magnetic delta structure at the eastern end of the leading penumbra. M class flares are possible. Flares: C3.5 at 14:04, C2.0 at 15:25, C1.1 at 16:38, C1.8 at 17:01 and C3.1 at 22:24 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 26-28: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (starting late October 2002)

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 27-28.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 29. The black areas on the solar disk are coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 29. A coronal stream will likely reach Earth on Nov.30 and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions that day and on December 1. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10198 2002.11.15 10 2 S17W87 0270 EKO rotating out of view
10200 2002.11.20 3 2 S03W36 0020 CSO classification was AXX
at midnight
10202 2002.11.24 12 14 N14E14 0040 DSO classification was BXO
at midnight
10203 2002.11.26 1 1 N09E43 0010 AXX  
10204 2002.11.27 7 6 N17E28 0030 CSO  
10205 2002.11.27 1 1 N19E49 0040 HSX  
10206 2002.11.27 1   S27E30 0000 AXX now spotless
10207 2002.11.27 9 17 S19E59 0430 EKO beta-delta
Total spot count: 44 43
SSN: 124 113

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.10 207.6 125.5 114.0 (-0.1)
2001.11 210.6 106.5 115.5 (+1.5)
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.01 226.6 114.1 113.5 (-1.1)
2002.02 205.0 107.4 114.7 (+1.2)
2002.03 179.5 98.4 113.4 (-1.3)
2002.04 189.8 120.7 110.5 (-2.9)
2002.05 178.4 120.8 (109.0 predicted, -1-5)
2002.06 148.7 88.3 (107.0 predicted, -2.0)
2002.07 173.5 99.9 (103.6 predicted, -3.4)
2002.08 183.6 116.4 (100.2 predicted, -3.4)
2002.09 175.8 109.3 (96.4 predicted, -4.8)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 (92.3 predicted, -4.1)
2002.11 170.5 (1) 152.3 (2) (87.0 predicted, -5.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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