Last update December 1, 2002 at 01:55 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data
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[Solar cycles 21-23 (last
update November 2, 2002)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Graphical comparison of
cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 2, 2002)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic
data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update November 24, 2002)]
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on November 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 466 and 562 km/sec under the influence of a coronal stream.
Solar flare activity was low. Solar flux was 146.2, the planetary A
index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour ap indices: 16.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 34433333 (planetary), 24433322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. Only 1 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10202 decayed into spotless plage.
Region 10204 decayed slowly and could become spotless today.
Region 10205 was quiet and stable.
Region 10207 was again mostly unchanged in penumbral area. The region continued to expand longitudinally and the main
positive and negative polarity areas are now well separated.
Region 10208 developed slowly and was quiet.
New region 10209 rotated into view at the southeast limb on Nov.29 and was numbered on Nov.30. Flare: C1.1 at
22:12 UTC.
New region 10210 emerged near the southwest limb on Nov.29 and was numbered on Nov.30.
November 28-30: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.
Coronal hole history (starting late October 2002)
A weakening recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on November 27-28.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 30. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 1-2 under the influence of a coronal stream and quiet to unsettled on December 3-4. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
|
|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
| Solar region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10200 | 2002.11.20 | 1 | S03W67 | 0000 | AXX | spotless all day | |
| 10202 | 2002.11.24 | 7 | N15W16 | 0010 | BXO | now spotless | |
| 10203 | 2002.11.26 | 1 | N09E17 | 0000 | AXX | spotless all day | |
| 10204 | 2002.11.27 | 7 | 2 | N20W02 | 0010 | BXO |
classification was AXX at midnight, area was 0000 then |
| 10205 | 2002.11.27 | 1 | 1 | N19E23 | 0020 | HSX |
area was 0040 at midnight |
| 10206 | 2002.11.27 | S27E04 | plage | ||||
| 10207 | 2002.11.27 | 19 | 15 | S19E31 | 0290 | EAI |
area near 0370 at midnight |
| 10208 | 2002.11.29 | 12 | 18 | N10E63 | 0210 | DAO | |
| 10209 | 2002.11.30 | 8 | 11 | S20E62 | 0140 | DAO | formerly region S38 |
| 10210 | 2002.11.30 | 4 | 5 | S09W77 | 0060 | DSO | formerly region S38 |
| Total spot count: | 60 | 52 | |||||
| SSN: | 150 | 112 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.10 | 207.6 | 125.5 | 114.0 (-0.1) |
| 2001.11 | 210.6 | 106.5 | 115.5 (+1.5) |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2002.01 | 226.6 | 114.1 | 113.5 (-1.1) |
| 2002.02 | 205.0 | 107.4 | 114.7 (+1.2) |
| 2002.03 | 179.5 | 98.4 | 113.4 (-1.3) |
| 2002.04 | 189.8 | 120.7 | 110.5 (-2.9) |
| 2002.05 | 178.4 | 120.8 | (109.0 predicted, -1-5) |
| 2002.06 | 148.7 | 88.3 | (107.0 predicted, -2.0) |
| 2002.07 | 173.5 | 99.9 | (103.6 predicted, -3.4) |
| 2002.08 | 183.6 | 116.4 | (100.2 predicted, -3.4) |
| 2002.09 | 175.8 | 109.3 | (96.4 predicted, -4.8) |
| 2002.10 | 167.0 | 97.5 | (92.3 predicted, -4.1) |
| 2002.11 | 168.7 (1) | 160.9 (2) | (87.0 predicted, -5.3) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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