Last update issued on June 8, 2003 at 03:25 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 3, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 3, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 3, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update April 13, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update June 1, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was active to minor storm on June 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 573 and 758 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH42.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 133.2. The planetary A
index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 44444445 (planetary), 34433335 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight there were 7 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 11 C class events was recorded during the day. A C1.1 flare was observed in now spotless region S176 at 13:23 UTC.
Region 10373 was quiet and stable.
Region 10375 developed further and has at least 2 magnetic delta structures. M class flaring is likely and a major flare is possible. Flares: C2.6 at 02:19, C1.6 at 03:26, C2.3 at 09:42, C1.5 at 10:37, C1.8 at 11:12, C1.4 at 17:49 and C1.7 at 23:32 UTC
Region 10377 developed slowly and quietly.
Region 10378 decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 10380 rotated into view at the southeast limb on June 6 and was numbered by SEC the next day. This is a fairly complex region capable of producing at least minor M class flares. There is a magnetic delta structure in the main penumbra. Flares: C9.0 long duration event peaking at 00:52, C2.3 at 05:32 and C1.0 at 20:02 UTC.
Spotted regions not yet numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S178] A new region emerged in the southwest quadrant on June 6 and developed slowly on June 7. Please note that SEC has made a major mistake in reassigning region number 10376 to this region. The spotless region 10376 was located at S11W57 at midnight. Location at midnight: S15W42.
[S180] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 7. Location at midnight: S07E14.
June 5-7: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A huge recurrent coronal hole (CH42) in the southern hemisphere was in a geoeffective position on May 29-June 6.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 8. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on June 8-9 and quiet to active on June 10 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH42.
Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor and will likely stay poor to very poor until at least June 10. Propagation along north-south paths is fair to good. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Cidade AM from Brasil at first, then Radio Cristal del Uruguay.]
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was EKC
at midnight, area 0800
region is spotless,
SECs spots belong
to region S178,
SECs classification is
impossible with an
area of 0060. Very
poor observation by
SEC and USAF
classification was ESO
classification was CSO
formerly region S179
classification was DKC
|Total spot count:||65||140|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.12||157.2||80.8||(81.4 predicted, -3.8)|
|2003.01||144.0||79.5||(78.3 predicted, -3.1)|
|2003.02||124.5||46.2||(73.3 predicted, -5.0)|
|2003.03||131.4||61.5||(67.6 predicted, -5.7)|
|2003.04||126.4||60.0||(62.7 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(57.8 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.06||118.0 (1)||19.1 (2)||(53.8 predicted, -4.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.