Last update issued on May 16, 2003 at 03:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update May 1, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update May 1, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update May 1, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update April 13, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update May 12, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on May 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 586 and 751 km/sec under the influence of a slowly diminishing high speed stream from coronal hole CH38.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 99.2. The planetary A
index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 23.9).
Three hour interval K indices: 44444433 (planetary), 43435423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 6 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was very low.
Region 10356 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10357 decayed further and lost its leader spot.
Region 10358 decayed losing most of its small spots and some of the penumbral area on the leading spots.
New region 10361 emerged in the northeast quadrant on May 14 and was numbered the next day. Slow development was observed on May 15.
Region 10362 rotated into view at the southeast limb.
Spotted regions not numbered by SEC/NOAA:
[S158] A new region emerged on May 14 in the southwest quadrant just north of where spotless region 10359 is located. Location at midnight: S11W59.
May 13-15: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH39) was in a geoeffective position on May 15-16. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH40) will rotate into a geoeffective position on May 18-20.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on May 16. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on May 16 and quiet to unsettled on May 17. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH39 will likely reach Earth on May 18 and cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions that day and on May 19. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH40 is expected to influence the field May 21-24. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor and will likely be very poor until at least May 25. Propagation along north-south paths is good and is likely to be at least fair until May 25. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. Lots of stations from Brazil were noted on other frequencies above 1350 kHz.]
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was DSO
at midnight, area 0040
classification was HSX
area was 0040
spots belong to
formerly region S159
classification was DRO
|Total spot count:||27||24|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.11||168.7||95.5||(84.9 predicted, -5.6)|
|2002.12||157.2||80.8||(80.5 predicted, -4.4)|
|2003.01||144.0||79.5||(77.5 predicted, -3.0)|
|2003.02||124.5||46.2||(72.4 predicted, -5.1)|
|2003.03||131.4||61.5||(66.8 predicted, -5.6)|
|2003.04||126.4||60.0||(61.9 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.05||114.0 (1)||46.9 (2)||(57.9 predicted, -4.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.